Spread: Giants (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (33%) · Giants at 55¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 8

Giants55¢Eagles45¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 33%

Total Value

$60.9K

Combined PnL

-$867.12

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants55%

Eagles46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants3 traders

Total Value$33.9K

Total Shares62,218

Combined PnL-$321.97

Eagles6 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares60,374

Combined PnL-$545.15

Giants — 33%Eagles — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Giantsavg 55¢	$33.3K	$33.0K	-$303.03	52% 5109-4675 (9784)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Eaglesavg 45.7¢	$20.6K	$20.0K	-$559.58	49% 797-827 (1624)
IC ic4creamCTR	Eaglesavg 45.7¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$21.03	56% 2788-2199 (4987)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Eaglesavg 45¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$33.42	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
38 38791873984189	Giantsavg 54.8¢	$1.2K	$869.95	-$19.35	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Eaglesavg 44.5¢	$104.56	$104.46	+$1.17	48% 405-446 (851)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 45¢	$40.91	$41.36	+$0.45	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 43¢	$11.86	$12.28	+$0.41	51% 3847-3765 (7612)
PA Pan9X<$100	Giants	$11.1	$11.1	+$0.41	54% 10453-8773 (19226)

takeormake

Giants

Invested

$33,333.23

Value

$33.0K

PnL

-$303.03

Record

52%

5109-4675 (9784)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Eagles

Invested

$20,600.91

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$559.58

Record

49%

797-827 (1624)

ic4creamCTR

Eagles

Invested

$3,967.25

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$21.03

Record

56%

2788-2199 (4987)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Eagles

Invested

$2,837.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$33.42

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

38791873984189

Giants

Invested

$1,161.3

Value

$869.95

PnL

-$19.35

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Eagles

Invested

$104.56

Value

$104.46

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

NM-PCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$40.91

Value

$41.36

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$11.86

Value

$12.28

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

3847-3765 (7612)

Pan9X<$100

Giants

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Giants

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.