Spread: Lions (-14.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (45%) · Dolphins at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Lions22¢Dolphins78¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$216.25

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 78.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions22%

Dolphins79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,403

Combined PnL+$234.62

Lions6 traders

Total Value$571.42

Total Shares2,546

Combined PnL-$18.37

Dolphins — 45%Lions — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Dolphinsavg 77.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$25.19	51% 6914-6531 (13445)
PR primm	Dolphinsavg 63¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$169.7	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
0xheavy888	Dolphinsavg 77.1¢	$886.9	$926.04	+$39.14	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Lionsavg 35¢	$513.97	$427.5	-$86.47	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 72¢	$251.64	$281.35	+$29.71
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 35¢	$262.33	$146.15	-$116.17
AN Anon455CTR	Lionsavg 21¢	$420	$420	+$0	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Lionsavg 23¢	$139.84	$135.76	-$4.08	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 23¢	$115	$107.5	-$7.5
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 69¢	$24.84	$28.26	+$3.42
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Lionsavg 25¢	$63.09	$79.49	+$16.4	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Lionsavg 37¢	$74	$43	-$31	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lionsavg 27.2¢	$24.77	$15.81	-$2.03	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Lionsavg 25¢	$8.75	$8.24	-$0.5	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Dolphinsavg 79¢	$7.9	$8.2	+$0.3	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Lionsavg 26.9¢	$6.11	$4.87	-$1.23	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1<$100	Dolphinsavg 70¢	$2.33	$2.62	+$0.28	53% 70164-61737 (131901)

CUTJALENHURTS

Dolphins

Invested

$1,952.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$25.19

Record

51%

6914-6531 (13445)

primm

Dolphins

Invested

$1,425.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$169.7

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

0xheavy888

Dolphins

Invested

$886.9

Value

$926.04

PnL

+$39.14

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$513.97

Value

$427.5

PnL

-$86.47

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Both legs:

Dolphins$251.6472¢+$29.71

Lions$262.3335¢-$116.17

Anon455CTR

Lions

Invested

$420

Value

$420

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$139.84

Value

$135.76

PnL

-$4.08

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

Both legs:

Lions$11523¢-$7.5

Dolphins$24.8469¢+$3.42

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$63.09

Value

$79.49

PnL

+$16.4

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$74

Value

$43

PnL

-$31

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$24.77

Value

$15.81

PnL

-$2.03

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

justaluckydude<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$7.9

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$6.11

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$1.23

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.