Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (64%) · Jets at 52¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 8

Chiefs49¢Jets51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

$235.42

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs49%

Jets52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs4 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares24,082

Combined PnL-$588.17

Jets7 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares33,065

Combined PnL+$823.59

Chiefs — 36%Jets — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Chiefsavg 52.1¢	$10.4K	$9.6K	-$499.83	53% 668-585 (1253)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jetsavg 48.8¢	$8.3K	$8.7K	+$465.79	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888	Jetsavg 48.9¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$320.48	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PW Pwaddler	Jetsavg 50.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.4	49% 458-484 (942)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Chiefsavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$68.04	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Chiefsavg 49.7¢	$830.04	$846.84	+$9.45	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 49.7¢	$479.41	$468.12	-$11.29
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 47.7¢	$350.63	$378.72	+$20.74
38 38791873984189CTR	Chiefsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$648.95	-$20.22	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
DV dv-pm	Jetsavg 48.7¢	$312.48	$323.71	+$16.03	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
BA bands1<$100	Jetsavg 47¢	$48.4	$53.03	+$4.63	50% 423-431 (854)
HE Herdonia<$100	Jetsavg 47.4¢	$41.09	$43.54	+$2.51	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Jetsavg 49.7¢	$24.87	$25.25	+$0.75	46% 931-1099 (2030)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 50¢	$10.32	$10.23	-$0.09	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$10,426.19

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$499.83

Record

53%

668-585 (1253)

HomeRunHazard

Jets

Invested

$8,264.63

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$465.79

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

VeryLucky888

Jets

Invested

$6,146.09

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$320.48

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pwaddler

Jets

Invested

$1,360.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.4

Record

49%

458-484 (942)

darkumbreon88CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,415.15

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$68.04

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

NM-PARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$830.04

Value

$846.84

PnL

+$9.45

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Chiefs$479.4149.7¢-$11.29

Jets$350.6347.7¢+$20.74

38791873984189CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,035.5

Value

$648.95

PnL

-$20.22

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

dv-pm

Jets

Invested

$312.48

Value

$323.71

PnL

+$16.03

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

bands1<$100

Jets

Invested

$48.4

Value

$53.03

PnL

+$4.63

Record

50%

423-431 (854)

Herdonia<$100

Jets

Invested

$41.09

Value

$43.54

PnL

+$2.51

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Jets

Invested

$24.87

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$10.32

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.