Spread: Rams (-3.5)

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (50%) · Commanders at 65¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 8

Rams36¢Commanders64¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.8K

Combined PnL

$7.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 64.5¢

+36% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams36%

Commanders65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders8 traders

Total Value$31.6K

Total Shares49,723

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Rams8 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares36,314

Combined PnL-$841.54

Commanders — 50%Rams — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Commandersavg 47.1¢	$20.4K	$27.9K	+$7.5K	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Ramsavg 53.7¢	$14.2K	$13.8K	-$314.3	57% 106-79 (185)
LooksMaxing101CTR	Ramsavg 53.7¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$37.36	51% 900-866 (1766)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Commandersavg 46.5¢	$4.0K	$1.9K	+$87.83	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 46.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$57.06
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 51.7¢	$471.23	$473.88	+$30.77
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Commandersavg 52.6¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$352.93	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Commandersavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$37.25	49% 507-531 (1038)
RN1CTR	Ramsavg 47.2¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$331.97	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ramsavg 45.7¢	$640	$497	-$143	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Ramsavg 53¢	$212	$218	+$6	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
SN SnakeBall	Commandersavg 46¢	$181.23	$187.14	+$5.91	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
AN Anon455	Commandersavg 47.4¢	$130.13	$177.22	+$47.09	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
BI biying88888	Commandersavg 51¢	$81.09	$102.56	+$21.47	48% 219-239 (458)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Ramsavg 42¢	$91.56	$77.39	-$14.17	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Commandersavg 46¢	$68.54	$70.78	+$2.24	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ramsavg 45.7¢	$49.84	$36.58	+$1.02	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ramsavg 50¢	$26.73	$18.98	-$7.75	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
PR primm<$100	Commandersavg 48¢	$9.6	$12.9	+$3.3	47% 1426-1612 (3038)

takeormake

Commanders

Invested

$20,368.93

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

lightotunnel35CTR

Rams

Invested

$14,156.6

Value

$13.8K

PnL

-$314.3

Record

57%

106-79 (185)

LooksMaxing101CTR

Rams

Invested

$2,687.37

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$37.36

Record

51%

900-866 (1766)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$4,033.03

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$87.83

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Commanders$1,411.9246.5¢+$57.06

Rams$471.2351.7¢+$30.77

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Commanders

Invested

$1,554.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$352.93

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Multicoloured-Serf

Commanders

Invested

$1,142.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$37.25

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

RN1CTR

Rams

Invested

$1,335.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$331.97

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

6512395314597884CTR

Rams

Invested

$640

Value

$497

PnL

-$143

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Rams

Invested

$212

Value

$218

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

SnakeBall

Commanders

Invested

$181.23

Value

$187.14

PnL

+$5.91

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Anon455

Commanders

Invested

$130.13

Value

$177.22

PnL

+$47.09

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

biying88888

Commanders

Invested

$81.09

Value

$102.56

PnL

+$21.47

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$91.56

Value

$77.39

PnL

-$14.17

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Commanders

Invested

$68.54

Value

$70.78

PnL

+$2.24

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$49.84

Value

$36.58

PnL

+$1.02

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$26.73

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$7.75

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

primm<$100

Commanders

Invested

$9.6

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$3.3

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.