Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 3 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5

3 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 31¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 8

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 30.5¢

-44% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 17 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares21,905

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Under14 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares23,077

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 54.5¢	$11.9K	$7.0K	$-4.9K	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 39.1¢	$3.5K	$6.1K	+$2.6K	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
AN Anon455	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$325.98	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 42¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$791.6	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1	Underavg 55.8¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$301.25	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 57¢	$40.45	$928.66	-$6.32	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
0xheavy888	Underavg 59¢	$663.75	$421.88	-$241.88	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
NM NM-P	Underavg 59¢	$295	$340	+$45	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Underavg 60.5¢	$302.5	$300	-$2.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 46.8¢	$183.51	$247.16	+$63.64	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
SI Siddhartha1	Underavg 80.5¢	$274.88	$204.88	-$70	49% 64-67 (131)
CM cm2897	Underavg 78.5¢	$103.62	$79.2	-$24.42	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$69.24	$76.06	+$6.82	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$39.65	$54.4	+$14.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.7¢	$29.59	$21.66	-$7.93
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56¢	$65.28	$72	+$6.72	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 45¢	$26.73	$40.39	+$13.66	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 59.5¢	$29.59	$29.84	+$0.25	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$16	$12.8	-$3.2	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$10.66	$8.32	-$2.34	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$11,905.54

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$3,508.53

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$2,946.05

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$325.98

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,255

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$791.6

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,378.8

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$301.25

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$40.45

Value

$928.66

PnL

-$6.32

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$663.75

Value

$421.88

PnL

-$241.88

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$295

Value

$340

PnL

+$45

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$302.5

Value

$300

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$183.51

Value

$247.16

PnL

+$63.64

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Siddhartha1

Under

Invested

$274.88

Value

$204.88

PnL

-$70

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$103.62

Value

$79.2

PnL

-$24.42

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$69.24

Value

$76.06

PnL

+$6.82

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Both legs:

Under$39.6549.6¢+$14.75

Over$29.5943.7¢-$7.93

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$65.28

Value

$72

PnL

+$6.72

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$26.73

Value

$40.39

PnL

+$13.66

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$29.59

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$3.2

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.66

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$2.34

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 17 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.