Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 56¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 8

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.8K

Combined PnL

$111.86

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 56.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares18,581

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares16,143

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 52.4¢	$4.8K	$5.2K	+$383.11	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 50.3¢	$5.8K	$5.0K	-$783.12	48% 219-239 (458)
RN1	Underavg 47¢	$3.5K	$4.2K	+$710.78	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$111.72	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$984.82	$922.22	-$62.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$613.78	$788.1	+$174.32
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$384.69	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
PR primm	Underavg 45¢	$754.92	$947.84	+$192.92	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$354	$426	+$72	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.7¢	$262	$339	+$77
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$92	$87	-$5
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 53¢	$333.58	$349.32	+$15.74	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 54¢	$162	$166.5	+$4.5	48% 8319-8875 (17194)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 56¢	$112	$87	-$25	50% 2562-2599 (5161)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 47¢	$75.2	$71.2	-$4	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$38.36	$39.98	+$1.62	48% 70219-75923 (146142)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$4,837.45

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$383.11

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$5,829.31

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$783.12

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,535.97

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$710.78

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,598.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$111.72

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Over$984.8246.5¢-$62.6

Under$613.7844¢+$174.32

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$1,839.84

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$384.69

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

primm

Under

Invested

$754.92

Value

$947.84

PnL

+$192.92

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$354

Value

$426

PnL

+$72

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Both legs:

Invested

$333.58

Value

$349.32

PnL

+$15.74

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$162

Value

$166.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

48%

8319-8875 (17194)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$112

Value

$87

PnL

-$25

Record

50%

2562-2599 (5161)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$75.2

Value

$71.2

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.36

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$1.62

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.