Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5

5 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 54¢ · $150K held · ends Nov 8

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$149.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 20 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$112.2K

Total Shares213,789

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over15 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares67,974

Combined PnL-$423.64

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Underavg 53.7¢	$112.2K	$109.7K	$-2.5K	51% 233-227 (460)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 47¢	$14.9K	$14.7K	-$158.37	48% 405-446 (851)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$77.47	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$51.18	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 46.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$64.31	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$117.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$53.06
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$24.99	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$20.96	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$7.92	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$434.75	$430.13	-$4.63
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.51	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Underavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.34	51% 1005-973 (1978)
SP SPLPBARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0	24% 806-2607 (3413)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$612.68	$618.46	+$5.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$543.32	$537.54	-$5.78
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$22.5	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
PI PiEDawgCTR	Overavg 47¢	$705	$697.5	-$7.5	31% 1860-4120 (5980)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$592.5	$581.25	-$11.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$592.5	$581.25	-$11.25	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$503.56	$494.91	-$8.65	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 54¢	$275.25	$254.18	-$20.84	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$245.8	$244.12	-$1.68	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 48¢	$244.56	$236.92	-$7.64	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 46¢	$115	$116.25	+$1.25	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47.2¢	$51.76	$51.16	-$0.59	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 53¢	$31.8	$32.1	+$0.3	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$15.81	$16.3	+$0.5	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

Kch-Temp

Under

Invested

$112,157.37

Value

$109.7K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

51%

233-227 (460)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$14,887

Value

$14.7K

PnL

-$158.37

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$4,607.55

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$77.47

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$4,587.53

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$51.18

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,301.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$64.31

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Under$1,197.7446.2¢+$117.37

Over$1,103.6152¢-$53.06

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$2,349.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$24.99

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,969.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$20.96

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,763.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$7.92

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Both legs:

Under$1,329.2453¢+$12.54

Over$434.7547¢-$4.63

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$1,294.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.51

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Under

Invested

$1,231.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

1005-973 (1978)

SPLPBARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,156

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

24%

806-2607 (3413)

Both legs:

Under$612.6853¢+$5.78

Over$543.3247¢-$5.78

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,068.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

PiEDawgCTR

Over

Invested

$705

Value

$697.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

31%

1860-4120 (5980)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$592.5

Value

$581.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$592.5

Value

$581.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$503.56

Value

$494.91

PnL

-$8.65

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$275.25

Value

$254.18

PnL

-$20.84

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$245.8

Value

$244.12

PnL

-$1.68

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$244.56

Value

$236.92

PnL

-$7.64

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$115

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.76

Value

$51.16

PnL

-$0.59

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$31.8

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.81

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 20 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.