Browns vs. Saints: O/U 42.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 51¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$18.4K
$669.63
48.8¢ → 50.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 48.7¢ | $7.0K | $7.3K | +$361.09 | 54% 18234-15347 (33581) |
PW Pwaddler | Underavg 48¢ | $4.7K | $5.0K | +$246.5 | 49% 455-480 (935) |
GA Gaditima | Underavg 50.2¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$61.19 | 48% 7411-8113 (15524) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 49.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$7.75 | 51% 3806-3729 (7535) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$1.45 | 58% 46840-33772 (80612) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $402.71 | $406.82 | +$4.11 | 53% 12487-11218 (23705) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $186.18 | $188.08 | +$1.9 | 48% 61419-66265 (127684) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $110.25 | $111.38 | +$1.13 | 51% 37791-37025 (74816) |
Invested
$7,037.51
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$361.09
Record
54%
18234-15347 (33581)
Invested
$4,732.71
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$246.5
Record
49%
455-480 (935)
Invested
$3,013.79
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$61.19
Record
48%
7411-8113 (15524)
Invested
$1,391.74
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$7.75
Record
51%
3806-3729 (7535)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,034.89
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.45
Record
58%
46840-33772 (80612)
Invested
$402.71
Value
$406.82
PnL
+$4.11
Record
53%
12487-11218 (23705)
Invested
$186.18
Value
$188.08
PnL
+$1.9
Record
48%
61419-66265 (127684)
Invested
$110.25
Value
$111.38
PnL
+$1.13
Record
51%
37791-37025 (74816)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.