Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 19 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lions vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5

19 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 50¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 8

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 49.5¢

+15% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

19 of 22 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under19 traders

Total Value$31.1K

Total Shares69,302

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,614

Combined PnL-$200.98

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (16 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrUnder 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 94% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 43¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$97.96	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$9.67	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Underavg 43¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$52.79	48% 491-536 (1027)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 43¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$455.34	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$308.49	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.2¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$298.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$990	-$10
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 42¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$313.57	48% 219-239 (458)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 41.6¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$349.63	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.86	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$11.63	55% 824-676 (1500)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 58.3¢	$875	$742.5	-$132.5	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.3K	$567.79	+$6.53	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 57.4¢	$575.27	$506.23	-$69.04	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$1.2K	$504.91	+$4.2	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.0K	$435	+$5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 44¢	$681.52	$296.46	-$3.41	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	56% 193-149 (342)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$113	+$11
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$87	-$11
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 43¢	$172	$198	+$26	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 46¢	$92	$101	+$9	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$91.16	$92.22	+$1.06	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$197.67	$85.99	-$0.01	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 56¢	$62.72	$63.28	+$0.56	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$40.36	$48.73	+$8.37	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$55	$23.93	+$0.28	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 43.3¢	$45	$19.58	+$0.08	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$8,422.82

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$97.96

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,364.93

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$9.67

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Under

Invested

$4,539.51

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$52.79

Record

48%

491-536 (1027)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$2,777.1

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$455.34

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,247.79

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$308.49

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Over$2,247.7958.2¢-$298.49

Under$1,00050¢-$10

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,756.02

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$313.57

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$1,638.55

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$349.63

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$1,105.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.86

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.63

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$875

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$132.5

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,305.27

Value

$567.79

PnL

+$6.53

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$575.27

Value

$506.23

PnL

-$69.04

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$1,160.71

Value

$504.91

PnL

+$4.2

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$681.52

Value

$296.46

PnL

-$3.41

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

Both legs:

Over$10050¢+$11

Under$10050¢-$11

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$172

Value

$198

PnL

+$26

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$92

Value

$101

PnL

+$9

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.16

Value

$92.22

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$197.67

Value

$85.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$62.72

Value

$63.28

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.36

Value

$48.73

PnL

+$8.37

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

19 of 22 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (16 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrUnder 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 94% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.