Spread: Rams (-4.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (42%) · Commanders at 52¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 8

Rams49¢Commanders51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 42%

Total Value

$25.1K

Combined PnL

-$68.26

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams49%

Commanders52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders5 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares30,625

Combined PnL-$109.62

Rams7 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares18,725

Combined PnL+$41.35

Commanders — 42%Rams — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpCommanders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCommanders 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Commandersavg 51.7¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	-$43.04	49% 458-484 (942)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Commandersavg 51.7¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	-$66.69	47% 535-611 (1146)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$6.3K	$6.4K	+$69.55	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$999.98	$989.78	-$10.2	55% 790-658 (1448)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	43% 115-152 (267)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ramsavg 51.8¢	$157.13	$535.3	-$2.9	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PCTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$245	$242.5	-$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$245	$242.5	-$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
HE Herdonia<$100	Commandersavg 50¢	$15.67	$15.98	+$0.16	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ramsavg 49¢	$8.82	$8.73	-$0.09	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RL RLWG<$100	Commandersavg 51¢	$7.65	$7.58	-$0.08	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
VeryLucky888<$100	Commandersavg 49¢	$0.96	$1	+$0.03	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

Pwaddler

Commanders

Invested

$8,920.27

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$43.04

Record

49%

458-484 (942)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Commanders

Invested

$6,903.3

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$66.69

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rams

Invested

$6,313.99

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$69.55

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

pltrkr111CTR

Rams

Invested

$999.98

Value

$989.78

PnL

-$10.2

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

DolphinBallerCTR

Rams

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

43%

115-152 (267)

38791873984189CTR

Rams

Invested

$157.13

Value

$535.3

PnL

-$2.9

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PCTR

Rams

Invested

$245

Value

$242.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Rams

Invested

$245

Value

$242.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Herdonia<$100

Commanders

Invested

$15.67

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$8.82

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RLWG<$100

Commanders

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

VeryLucky888<$100

Commanders

Invested

$0.96

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpCommanders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCommanders 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.