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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankDanny8273fantasy7788HomeRunHazard
Record (consensus markets)56% (61–47, n=108)81% (21–5, n=26)55% (23–19, n=42)52% (591–550, n=1141)
Consensus PnL$770K$6.4K$881K$385K
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #921PM monthly #18PM monthly #10
Sides with the consensus53% (16 of 30 open)100% (1 of 1 open)no open consensus position61% (91 of 149 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=37, ROI +45%
  • NFL +46 pts n=11, ROI +47%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 58 at avg 53¢, ROI +44%88% of 25 at avg 72¢, ROI +11%100% of 23 at avg 47¢, ROI +53%100% of 317 at avg 53¢, ROI +48%
Entries under 30¢0%0%4% (won 100% of 1)2% (won 100% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢43% (won 100% of 25)0%61% (won 100% of 14)32% (won 100% of 100)
Entries 50–70¢52% (won 100% of 30)36% (won 78% of 9)30% (won 100% of 7)60% (won 100% of 189)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 100% of 3)64% (won 94% of 16)4% (won 100% of 1)7% (won 100% of 22)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankDanny8273fantasy7788HomeRunHazard
Panthers vs. Saints
opposite sides · consensus Panthers
Panthers $1.2M——Saints $38K
Jaguars vs. Titans
opposite sides · consensus Jaguars
Titans $151K——Jaguars $35K
Spread: Colts (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $132K——Dolphins $6.9K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Titans
Titans $122K——Jaguars $4.3K
Pacers vs. 76ers
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Pacers $84K——76ers $36K
Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jaguars
Titans $104K——Jaguars $11
49ers vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus 49ers
Cowboys $78K——49ers $25K
Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
Chiefs $71K——Falcons $2.7K
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
Chiefs $27K——Falcons $7.1K
Spread: Colts (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $6.9K——Dolphins $8
Spread: Colts (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Dolphins
Colts $272——Dolphins $6.5K
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Packers
Vikings $496——Packers $4.9K
Spread: Packers (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Packers
Vikings $2.3K——Packers $464
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
same side · consensus Packers
Vikings $204K——Vikings $12K
Dolphins vs. Colts
same side · consensus Colts
Colts $75K——Colts $2.4K
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
same side · consensus Cowboys
Cowboys $55K——Cowboys $843
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)
same side · consensus Cowboys
Cowboys $37K——Cowboys $2.3K
Spread: Packers (-5.5)
same side · consensus Vikings
Vikings $11K——Vikings $7.8K