49ers vs. Cowboys

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (29%) · 49ers at 68¢ · $733 held · ends Nov 15

49ers68¢Cowboys32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 29%

Total Value

$733.37

Combined PnL

$11.63

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 67.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

49ers68%

Cowboys33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$404.17

Total Shares1,242

Combined PnL+$12.24

49ers2 traders

Total Value$329.2

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$0.61

Cowboys — 71%49ers — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 31.6¢	$141.43	$210.93	+$11.25	48% 603-645 (1248)
GA Gaditima	49ersavg 68.4¢	$171.81	$173.44	-$1.77	51% 62-60 (122)
DA darkumbreon88	49ersavg 67¢	$154.61	$155.77	+$1.15	4% 21-541 (562)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 33¢	$94.52	$91.66	-$1.43	34% 147-291 (438)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 32¢	$62.12	$62.12	+$0	47% 171-192 (363)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 31.2¢	$20.38	$25.58	+$2.21	47% 329-371 (700)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 32¢	$13.88	$13.88	+$0.22	50% 1275-1295 (2570)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$141.43

Value

$210.93

PnL

+$11.25

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Gaditima

49ers

Invested

$171.81

Value

$173.44

PnL

-$1.77

Record

51%

62-60 (122)

darkumbreon88

49ers

Invested

$154.61

Value

$155.77

PnL

+$1.15

Record

21-541 (562)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$94.52

Value

$91.66

PnL

-$1.43

Record

34%

147-291 (438)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$62.12

Value

$62.12

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$20.38

Value

$25.58

PnL

+$2.21

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$13.88

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.