Pacers vs. 76ers
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (50%) · 76ers at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
8
76ers 50%
$7.0K
$8.58
79¢ → 79.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tys0n8686 | 76ersavg 79¢ | $4.7K | $4.8K | +$30 | 65% 13-7 (20) |
WA Wal1CTR | Pacersavg 21¢ | $1.4K | $924.43 | -$22.55 | — 17-0 (17) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Pacersavg 20¢ | $645.91 | $662.06 | +$16.15 | 16% 23-117 (140) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Pacersavg 21¢ | $317.22 | $302.11 | -$15.11 | 46% 469-554 (1023) |
OD Oddstorm | 76ersavg 81.4¢ | $187.31 | $134.5 | -$7.04 | 32% 96-204 (300) |
SU suntori<$100 | 76ersavg 79¢ | $95.23 | $95.88 | +$0.65 | 45% 2465-2964 (5429) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 18.2¢ | $62.86 | $45.58 | +$4.84 | 48% 260-277 (537) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | 76ersavg 77.7¢ | $31.65 | $21.38 | +$1.63 | 50% 1521-1540 (3061) |
Invested
$4,740
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$30
Record
65%
13-7 (20)
Invested
$1,447.11
Value
$924.43
PnL
-$22.55
Record
—
17-0 (17)
Invested
$645.91
Value
$662.06
PnL
+$16.15
Record
16%
23-117 (140)
Invested
$317.22
Value
$302.11
PnL
-$15.11
Record
46%
469-554 (1023)
Invested
$187.31
Value
$134.5
PnL
-$7.04
Record
32%
96-204 (300)
Invested
$95.23
Value
$95.88
PnL
+$0.65
Record
45%
2465-2964 (5429)
Invested
$62.86
Value
$45.58
PnL
+$4.84
Record
48%
260-277 (537)
Invested
$31.65
Value
$21.38
PnL
+$1.63
Record
50%
1521-1540 (3061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.