Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (72%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Vikings (-1.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (73%) · Packers at 28¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings72¢Packers28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

-$106.07

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 28.5¢

-52% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings72%

Packers28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares16,021

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Packers11 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares16,935

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Vikings — 27%Packers — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPackers 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Vikingsavg 40¢	$6.0K	$9.3K	+$3.3K	59% 1150-796 (1946)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Packersavg 60¢	$7.5K	$4.9K	$-2.6K	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
HI hi774cCTR	Packersavg 60¢	$1.5K	$947.22	-$510.04	26% 249-695 (944)
BR BreakTheBank	Vikingsavg 40¢	$317.42	$495.97	+$178.55	42% 621-853 (1474)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Packersavg 60¢	$496	$248	-$248	30% 495-1136 (1631)
SI Siddhartha1	Vikingsavg 39¢	$81.06	$128.33	+$47.27	58% 113-81 (194)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 60.3¢	$174.83	$108.73	-$66.1	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 41.6¢	$117.98	$106.32	-$11.67	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 60¢	$148.17	$94.14	-$54.03	49% 486-502 (988)
nigiri99CTR	Packersavg 60¢	$100.8	$63	-$37.8	50% 748-738 (1486)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Vikingsavg 52¢	$50.38	$54.69	+$4.31	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 52¢	$26	$31.25	+$5.25
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 39¢	$24.38	$23.44	-$0.94
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 58¢	$52.93	$29.88	-$17.54	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Packersavg 61¢	$34.16	$21.84	-$12.32	36% 140-253 (393)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Packersavg 60¢	$24	$15	-$9	68% 2679-1267 (3946)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Vikingsavg 58¢	$11.6	$12.5	+$0.9	50% 658-658 (1316)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Packersavg 50¢	$5.76	$4.32	-$1.44	38% 1374-2228 (3602)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Vikings

Invested

$6,000

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Packers

Invested

$7,505

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

hi774cCTR

Packers

Invested

$1,457.26

Value

$947.22

PnL

-$510.04

Record

26%

249-695 (944)

BreakTheBank

Vikings

Invested

$317.42

Value

$495.97

PnL

+$178.55

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Packers

Invested

$496

Value

$248

PnL

-$248

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

Siddhartha1

Vikings

Invested

$81.06

Value

$128.33

PnL

+$47.27

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$174.83

Value

$108.73

PnL

-$66.1

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$117.98

Value

$106.32

PnL

-$11.67

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$148.17

Value

$94.14

PnL

-$54.03

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

nigiri99CTR

Packers

Invested

$100.8

Value

$63

PnL

-$37.8

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

NotJumpARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$50.38

Value

$54.69

PnL

+$4.31

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Vikings$2652¢+$5.25

Packers$24.3839¢-$0.94

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$52.93

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$17.54

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

OddstormCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$34.16

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$12.32

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$24

Value

$15

PnL

-$9

Record

68%

2679-1267 (3946)

justaluckydude<$100

Vikings

Invested

$11.6

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

VenusianCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$5.76

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$1.44

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPackers 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.