Spread: Colts (-4.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (38%) · Colts at 52¢ · $191K held · ends Nov 15

Colts52¢Dolphins48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$191.0K

Combined PnL

-$655.18

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colts52%

Dolphins49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts5 traders

Total Value$118.1K

Total Shares231,654

Combined PnL+$884.32

Dolphins8 traders

Total Value$72.0K

Total Shares147,286

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Colts — 38%Dolphins — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Dolphins) and the top 1000 (6 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Coltsavg 50¢	$58.7K	$59.3K	+$586.89	42% 621-853 (1474)
R2 R2D2RSCTR	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$55.9K	$54.3K	$-1.7K	— 0-2 (2)
JU justwins	Coltsavg 51¢	$42.9K	$43.3K	+$420.8	50% 127-126 (253)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$14.6K	$14.7K	+$175.11	48% 720-766 (1486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Coltsavg 52¢	$14.2K	$14.1K	-$136.98	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dolphinsavg 49.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$18.5	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
AB abc51001	Coltsavg 51¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$9.8	8% 3-34 (37)
AN Anon455CTR	Dolphinsavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	49% 482-499 (981)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 48.6¢	$541.96	$548.06	+$6.09	42% 548-748 (1296)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 48.6¢	$311.64	$310.83	-$0.82
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 50¢	$230.32	$237.23	+$6.91
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Coltsavg 50¢	$380	$383.8	+$3.8	48% 472-515 (987)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Coltsavg 50¢	$247.5	$250	+$2.5	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 50¢	$125	$126.25	+$1.25
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 49¢	$122.5	$123.75	+$1.25
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$240	$242.5	+$2.5	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$245.5	$238.14	-$7.37	44% 337-422 (759)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	— 7-10 (17)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 49.6¢	$38.67	$37.83	-$0.84	50% 2190-2198 (4388)

BreakTheBank

Colts

Invested

$58,688.9

Value

$59.3K

PnL

+$586.89

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

R2D2RSCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$55,946.97

Value

$54.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

—

0-2 (2)

justwins

Colts

Invested

$42,921.8

Value

$43.3K

PnL

+$420.8

Record

50%

127-126 (253)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$14,567.25

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$175.11

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Colts

Invested

$14,245.43

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$136.98

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

38791873984189CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,366.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$18.5

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

abc51001

Colts

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.8

Record

3-34 (37)

Anon455CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

49%

482-499 (981)

GC-PARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$541.96

Value

$548.06

PnL

+$6.09

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

Both legs:

Dolphins$311.6448.6¢-$0.82

Colts$230.3250¢+$6.91

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Colts

Invested

$380

Value

$383.8

PnL

+$3.8

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

NM-PARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$247.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

Both legs:

Colts$12550¢+$1.25

Dolphins$122.549¢+$1.25

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$240

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

Forecastication2CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$245.5

Value

$238.14

PnL

-$7.37

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

—

7-10 (17)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$38.67

Value

$37.83

PnL

-$0.84

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colts

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Dolphins) and the top 1000 (6 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.