Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (58%) · Jaguars at 55¢ · $347K held · ends Nov 15

Jaguars55¢Titans45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 58%

Total Value

$346.7K

Combined PnL

$58.75

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars55%

Titans46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars7 traders

Total Value$191.3K

Total Shares349,825

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Titans5 traders

Total Value$155.5K

Total Shares341,683

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Jaguars — 58%Titans — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
R2 R2D2RS	Jaguarsavg 55¢	$164.6K	$163.1K	$-1.5K	— 0-2 (2)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Titansavg 45¢	$151.5K	$153.2K	+$1.7K	42% 621-853 (1474)
nigiri99	Jaguarsavg 55¢	$20.8K	$20.6K	-$192.27	50% 747-737 (1484)
VeryLucky888	Jaguarsavg 54¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	+$64.64	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
AB abc51001CTR	Titansavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$19.83	8% 3-34 (37)
38 38791873984189	Jaguarsavg 54¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$15.74	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Titansavg 45¢	$360	$360	-$0	30% 489-1134 (1623)
GC GC-P	Jaguarsavg 54¢	$270	$272.5	+$2.5	42% 548-748 (1296)
NM NM-P	Jaguarsavg 54¢	$269.98	$272.48	+$2.5	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Titansavg 46¢	$97.08	$96.02	-$1.06	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
IC ic4cream<$100	Jaguarsavg 55¢	$39.6	$39.24	-$0.36	9% 48-480 (528)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Titansavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.7	+$0.06	50% 2190-2198 (4388)

R2D2RS

Jaguars

Invested

$164,634.5

Value

$163.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

—

0-2 (2)

BreakTheBankCTR

Titans

Invested

$151,514.95

Value

$153.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

nigiri99

Jaguars

Invested

$20,813.1

Value

$20.6K

PnL

-$192.27

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

VeryLucky888

Jaguars

Invested

$5,630.39

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$64.64

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

abc51001CTR

Titans

Invested

$1,824.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$19.83

Record

3-34 (37)

38791873984189

Jaguars

Invested

$1,442.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.74

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Titans

Invested

$360

Value

$360

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

GC-P

Jaguars

Invested

$270

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

NM-P

Jaguars

Invested

$269.98

Value

$272.48

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

suntoriCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$97.08

Value

$96.02

PnL

-$1.06

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

ic4cream<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$39.6

Value

$39.24

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48-480 (528)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.