Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (50%) · 49ers at 52¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 15

49ers52¢Cowboys48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 50%

Total Value

$33.4K

Combined PnL

-$10.21

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers52%

Cowboys49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers5 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares36,496

Combined PnL-$180.62

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares30,028

Combined PnL+$170.42

49ers — 50%Cowboys — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (4 on 49ers) disagree here.

ctrCowboys 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100049ers 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	49ersavg 52¢	$16.4K	$16.3K	-$157.83	54% 554-481 (1035)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Cowboysavg 48¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$60	2% 15-593 (608)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cowboysavg 48¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$34.1	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Cowboysavg 48¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.97	45% 326-402 (728)
DA darkumbreon88	49ersavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$23.74	61% 1078-677 (1755)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Cowboysavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.93	48% 706-756 (1462)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cowboysavg 47¢	$953	$983.41	+$30.41	53% 1793-1578 (3371)
38 38791873984189<$100	49ersavg 50.6¢	$63.15	$64.24	+$1.08	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
OD Oddstorm<$100	49ersavg 52¢	$15.77	$15.77	+$0	35% 133-244 (377)
PA Pan9X<$100	49ersavg 52¢	$14.15	$14.01	-$0.14	50% 2084-2112 (4196)

monkeymashingkeyboard

49ers

Invested

$16,414.83

Value

$16.3K

PnL

-$157.83

Record

54%

554-481 (1035)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$5,760

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$60

Record

15-593 (608)

LightParadoxCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$3,274

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$34.1

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

Forecastication2CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$2,589.12

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.97

Record

45%

326-402 (728)

darkumbreon88

49ers

Invested

$2,468.46

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$23.74

Record

61%

1078-677 (1755)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,817

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.93

Record

48%

706-756 (1462)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$953

Value

$983.41

PnL

+$30.41

Record

53%

1793-1578 (3371)

38791873984189<$100

49ers

Invested

$63.15

Value

$64.24

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

Oddstorm<$100

49ers

Invested

$15.77

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

133-244 (377)

Pan9X<$100

49ers

Invested

$14.15

Value

$14.01

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

49ers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (4 on 49ers) disagree here.

ctrCowboys 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100049ers 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.