Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (25%) · Chiefs at 61¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 15

Chiefs61¢Falcons39¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 25%

Total Value

$51.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.77

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs61%

Falcons40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs3 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares50,796

Combined PnL+$261.11

Falcons9 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares51,612

Combined PnL-$297.88

Chiefs — 25%Falcons — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Chiefsavg 60¢	$20.6K	$20.8K	+$171.85	42% 621-853 (1474)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Falconsavg 40¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$124.95	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Chiefsavg 60¢	$9.0K	$9.1K	+$75	59% 1150-796 (1946)
VeryLucky888CTR	Falconsavg 40¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$100	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
LI LimousinCTR	Falconsavg 40¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$48.05	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 39.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$4.47	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Chiefsavg 59¢	$841.34	$855.6	+$14.26	51% 3936-3725 (7661)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Falconsavg 40.5¢	$769.41	$750.9	-$18.52	48% 472-515 (987)
NM NM-PCTR	Falconsavg 40¢	$200	$195	-$5	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
GC GC-PCTR	Falconsavg 40¢	$200	$195	-$5	42% 548-748 (1296)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Falconsavg 40¢	$30.62	$30.24	-$0.38	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 40¢	$18	$17.55	-$0.45	50% 2190-2198 (4388)

BreakTheBank

Chiefs

Invested

$20,621.97

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$171.85

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Falcons

Invested

$9,996

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$124.95

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Chiefs

Invested

$9,000

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$75

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

VeryLucky888CTR

Falcons

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

LimousinCTR

Falcons

Invested

$3,844

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$48.05

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,571.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$4.47

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Chiefs

Invested

$841.34

Value

$855.6

PnL

+$14.26

Record

51%

3936-3725 (7661)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Falcons

Invested

$769.41

Value

$750.9

PnL

-$18.52

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

NM-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$200

Value

$195

PnL

-$5

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

GC-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$200

Value

$195

PnL

-$5

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$30.62

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$18

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.