Spread: Packers (-4.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (44%) · Vikings at 61¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Packers40¢Vikings60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$56.05

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 60.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers40%

Vikings61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares13,992

Combined PnL-$77.99

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,044

Combined PnL+$134.03

Packers — 56%Vikings — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Packersavg 40¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$66.34	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
SI Siddhartha1	Vikingsavg 60¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$41.67	58% 113-81 (194)
BR BreakTheBank	Vikingsavg 60¢	$975.7	$983.83	+$8.13	42% 621-853 (1474)
RollAwayTheDew	Vikingsavg 51.7¢	$431.65	$504.64	+$72.99	18% 63-281 (344)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Packersavg 50¢	$200	$199	-$1	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 50¢	$100	$121	+$21
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 50¢	$100	$78	-$22
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 40.4¢	$297.08	$172.68	-$0.04	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Vikingsavg 56¢	$140	$151.25	+$11.25	48% 720-766 (1486)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Packersavg 44¢	$91.89	$81.45	-$10.44	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Packersavg 40¢	$30.62	$30.24	-$0.38	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 49¢	$12.6	$8.14	-$0.79	50% 2190-2198 (4388)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Packers

Invested

$5,307

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$66.34

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Siddhartha1

Vikings

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$41.67

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

BreakTheBank

Vikings

Invested

$975.7

Value

$983.83

PnL

+$8.13

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

RollAwayTheDew

Vikings

Invested

$431.65

Value

$504.64

PnL

+$72.99

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$200

Value

$199

PnL

-$1

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Invested

$297.08

Value

$172.68

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Multicoloured-Serf

Vikings

Invested

$140

Value

$151.25

PnL

+$11.25

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$91.89

Value

$81.45

PnL

-$10.44

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$30.62

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$12.6

Value

$8.14

PnL

-$0.79

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.