Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Dolphins (56%). 4 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Colts (-5.5)

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (25%) · Colts at 45¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 15

Colts45¢Dolphins55¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

-$444.7

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 44.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

4 of 16 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colts45%

Dolphins56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins12 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares33,313

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Colts4 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares31,130

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Dolphins — 75%Colts — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$8.0K	$8.9K	+$883.31	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Coltsavg 50¢	$8.0K	$6.9K	$-1.1K	42% 621-853 (1474)
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 55.2¢	$7.2K	$5.8K	$-1.4K	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1	Dolphinsavg 40.2¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$863.59	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Dolphinsavg 40.8¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$681.98	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
38 38791873984189	Dolphinsavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$448.9	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
AN Anon455	Dolphinsavg 51.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$119.58	49% 486-502 (988)
VE VenusianCTR	Coltsavg 48¢	$864.42	$801.39	-$63.03	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
VeryLucky888	Dolphinsavg 49¢	$361.99	$173.97	+$19.91	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
BO BoomLaLa	Dolphinsavg 51¢	$127.5	$142.5	+$15	39% 234-370 (604)
TO topdogbigboi	Dolphinsavg 45.9¢	$83.74	$103.95	+$20.21	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 48¢	$95.58	$88.61	-$6.97	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 57¢	$97.59	$80.1	-$13.09	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 56¢	$40.59	$40.96	+$0.36
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 57¢	$51.3	$39.15	-$13.45
PA Pan9X<$100	Dolphinsavg 44.7¢	$62.82	$41.08	-$1.51	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Dolphinsavg 39.5¢	$8.7	$9.57	+$0.87	50% 658-658 (1316)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$8.09	$7.79	-$0.3	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$8.5	$7.73	-$0.78	54% 1975-1650 (3625)

LightParadox

Dolphins

Invested

$8,030.13

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$883.31

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

BreakTheBankCTR

Colts

Invested

$8,030.13

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

42%

621-853 (1474)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$7,219.64

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1

Dolphins

Invested

$2,065.23

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$863.59

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Dolphins

Invested

$1,717.32

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$681.98

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

38791873984189

Dolphins

Invested

$2,505.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$448.9

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Anon455

Dolphins

Invested

$1,212.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$119.58

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

VenusianCTR

Colts

Invested

$864.42

Value

$801.39

PnL

-$63.03

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

VeryLucky888

Dolphins

Invested

$361.99

Value

$173.97

PnL

+$19.91

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

BoomLaLa

Dolphins

Invested

$127.5

Value

$142.5

PnL

+$15

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

topdogbigboi

Dolphins

Invested

$83.74

Value

$103.95

PnL

+$20.21

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$95.58

Value

$88.61

PnL

-$6.97

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

NotJumpARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$97.59

Value

$80.1

PnL

-$13.09

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Colts$40.5956¢+$0.36

Dolphins$51.357¢-$13.45

Pan9X<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$62.82

Value

$41.08

PnL

-$1.51

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

justaluckydude<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$8.09

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$8.5

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

4 of 16 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.