Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (22%) · Chiefs at 57¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 15

Chiefs57¢Falcons43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 22%

Total Value

$39.7K

Combined PnL

$43.64

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs57%

Falcons43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares39,488

Combined PnL+$191.48

Falcons7 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares39,917

Combined PnL-$147.83

Chiefs — 22%Falcons — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFalcons 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Chiefsavg 57¢	$22.2K	$22.4K	+$194.46	6% 10-159 (169)
HI hi774cCTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$9.2K	$9.1K	-$107.17	26% 249-694 (943)
VeryLucky888CTR	Falconsavg 42.7¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	-$32.83	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 42.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0.92	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$379.69	$375.27	-$4.41	48% 469-508 (977)
MA manoamano	Chiefsavg 58¢	$345.84	$342.86	-$2.98	56% 44-35 (79)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$147.95	$146.23	-$1.72	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Falconsavg 43¢	$48.16	$47.6	-$0.56	56% 663-529 (1192)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 43¢	$18.92	$18.7	-$0.22	50% 2174-2194 (4368)

Kch-Temp

Chiefs

Invested

$22,168.21

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$194.46

Record

10-159 (169)

hi774cCTR

Falcons

Invested

$9,216.27

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$107.17

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

VeryLucky888CTR

Falcons

Invested

$5,742.31

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$32.83

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,567.22

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0.92

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Falcons

Invested

$379.69

Value

$375.27

PnL

-$4.41

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

manoamano

Chiefs

Invested

$345.84

Value

$342.86

PnL

-$2.98

Record

56%

44-35 (79)

SnakeBallCTR

Falcons

Invested

$147.95

Value

$146.23

PnL

-$1.72

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$48.16

Value

$47.6

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$18.92

Value

$18.7

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFalcons 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.