Spread: Colts (-6.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (75%) · Dolphins at 56¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 15

Colts45¢Dolphins55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$46.25

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 55.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colts45%

Dolphins56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts2 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares22,760

Combined PnL+$137.19

Dolphins6 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares22,321

Combined PnL-$90.94

Colts — 25%Dolphins — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDolphins 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 44¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$90.41	59% 1182-828 (2010)
VeryLucky888	Dolphinsavg 56¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$3.56	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
38 38791873984189	Dolphinsavg 56.5¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$94.05	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Coltsavg 43¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$46.78	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
HO HomeRunHazard	Dolphinsavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Coltsavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$100	$112	+$12
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 50¢	$100	$88	-$12
BO BoomLaLa	Dolphinsavg 56¢	$140	$140	+$0	39% 234-370 (604)
0xheavy888<$100	Dolphinsavg 56¢	$62.72	$62.72	+$0	56% 665-530 (1195)
PA Pan9X<$100	Dolphinsavg 56.5¢	$50.85	$50.4	-$0.45	50% 2177-2197 (4374)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$7,955.9

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$90.41

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

VeryLucky888

Dolphins

Invested

$5,795.7

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$3.56

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

38791873984189

Dolphins

Invested

$5,531.53

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$94.05

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

LightParadoxCTR

Colts

Invested

$2,011.54

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$46.78

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

HomeRunHazard

Dolphins

Invested

$1,102.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Invested

$140

Value

$140

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

0xheavy888<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$62.72

Value

$62.72

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

Pan9X<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$50.85

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDolphins 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.