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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
keeptheblueflagflyinghighLlamaLoco0000MD14nigiri99
Record (consensus markets)48% (641–685, n=1326)100% (1–0, n=1)84% (26–5, n=31)53% (498–446, n=944)
Consensus PnL$564K$18K$341K$664K
Tracked asPM monthly #18was PM monthly #568PM monthly #108PM monthly #75
Sides with the consensus47% (21 of 45 open)0% (0 of 15 open)no open consensus position36% (27 of 74 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +20 pts n=19, ROI +16%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 422 at avg 52¢, ROI +45%—90% of 29 at avg 72¢, ROI +20%74% of 676 at avg 54¢, ROI +8%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 100% of 23)—3% (won 0% of 1)12% (won 40% of 83)
Entries 30–50¢34% (won 100% of 145)—10% (won 100% of 3)23% (won 65% of 158)
Entries 50–70¢52% (won 100% of 219)—21% (won 83% of 6)44% (won 77% of 300)
Entries 70¢ and up8% (won 100% of 35)—66% (won 95% of 19)20% (won 99% of 135)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

10 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketkeeptheblueflagflyinghighLlamaLoco0000MD14nigiri99
UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)
opposite sides · consensus Kayla Harrison
Kayla Harrison $9.4K——Amanda Nunes $68K
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Islanders
Islanders $15K——Ducks $592
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Arizona
Utah $9.7K——Arizona $2.6K
Flames vs. Kings
opposite sides · consensus Kings
Kings $7——Flames $10K
New Mexico Lobos vs. Santa Clara Broncos
opposite sides · consensus Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara Broncos $3.1K——New Mexico Lobos $525
Spread: Wyoming (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Wyoming
Wyoming $91——UTEP $2.3K
Islanders vs. Ducks
opposite sides · consensus Islanders
Islanders $1.6K——Ducks $578
Spread: LSU (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Texas
LSU $23——Texas $188
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Flames
Kings $50——Flames $156
Texas vs. LSU
same side · consensus LSU
Texas $380K——Texas $309
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 73.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $19K——Over $677
Spread: LSU (-4.5)
same side · consensus LSU
Texas $15K——Texas $128
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
same side · consensus Texas Tech
Texas Tech $3.6K——Texas Tech $5.9K
North Texas vs. UTSA
same side · consensus UTSA
North Texas $2.2K——North Texas $541
Texas vs. LSU: O/U 47.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $128——Over $1.2K
Utah vs. Arizona: O/U 55.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $4——Over $1.1K
North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 75.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $843——Over $183
Wyoming vs. UTEP: O/U 43.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $11——Over $509
Kobe: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Nitin Kumar Sinha
same side · consensus Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine
Nitin Kumar Sinha $157——Nitin Kumar Sinha $49