North Texas vs. UTSA

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (22%) · North Texas at 56¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

North Texas56¢UTSA44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 22%

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$99.4

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Texas56%

UTSA45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas2 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares18,157

Combined PnL+$90.84

UTSA7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares15,819

Combined PnL+$8.56

North Texas — 22%UTSA — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	North Texasavg 55¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$90.73	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
0xheavy888CTR	UTSAavg 45¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$30	56% 541-433 (974)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UTSAavg 45¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$29.67	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
38 38791873984189CTR	UTSAavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.16	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
VeryLucky888CTR	UTSAavg 45¢	$1.4K	$459.97	-$5.11	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	UTSAavg 44.7¢	$26.8	$26.7	-$0.1	45% 96-115 (211)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	UTSAavg 45¢	$22.5	$22.75	+$0.25	39% 1091-1679 (2770)
GH ghorrock<$100	North Texasavg 54¢	$46.07	$11.13	+$0.11	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
tradecraftCTR<$100	UTSAavg 45¢	$2.66	$2.68	+$0.03	32% 385-828 (1213)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

North Texas

Invested

$9,980.07

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$90.73

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

0xheavy888CTR

UTSA

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$30

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

6512395314597884CTR

UTSA

Invested

$2,716.29

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$29.67

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

38791873984189CTR

UTSA

Invested

$1,184.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.16

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

VeryLucky888CTR

UTSA

Invested

$1,354.9

Value

$459.97

PnL

-$5.11

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

efntrickCTR<$100

UTSA

Invested

$26.8

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

96-115 (211)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

UTSA

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

1091-1679 (2770)

ghorrock<$100

North Texas

Invested

$46.07

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

tradecraftCTR<$100

UTSA

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

385-828 (1213)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.