UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kayla Harrison (56%) · Kayla Harrison at 62¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Amanda Nunes39¢Kayla Harrison61¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kayla Harrison

Consensus Traders

Kayla Harrison 56%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$3.13

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKayla Harrison at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kayla Harrison

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Amanda Nunes39%

Kayla Harrison62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kayla Harrison5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,598

Combined PnL-$9.36

Amanda Nunes4 traders

Total Value$753.25

Total Shares1,982

Combined PnL+$12.49

Kayla Harrison — 56%Amanda Nunes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Kayla Harrison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Amanda Nunes) and the top 1000 (8 on Kayla Harrison) disagree here.

whaleKayla Harrison 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpKayla Harrison 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAmanda Nunes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedAmanda Nunes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kayla Harrison 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Kayla Harrisonavg 61¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$0	58% 3426-2517 (5943)
BR BreakTheBank	Kayla Harrisonavg 61.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$8.85	42% 594-837 (1431)
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003	Kayla Harrisonavg 61¢	$390.38	$393.58	+$3.2	—
nigiri99CTR	Amanda Nunesavg 39¢	$375.96	$366.32	-$9.64	52% 471-427 (898)
VeryLucky888CTR	Amanda Nunesavg 38¢	$2.2K	$268.73	+$25.24	53% 1030-921 (1951)
DA darkumbreon88	Kayla Harrisonavg 62¢	$226.86	$223.2	-$3.66	61% 1003-631 (1634)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Amanda Nunesavg 39¢	$100	$97.44	-$2.56	30% 10-23 (33)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Amanda Nunesavg 39¢	$21.32	$20.77	-$0.55	44% 391-495 (886)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100	Kayla Harrisonavg 62.5¢	$1.85	$1.8	-$0.04	— 14-5 (19)

takeormake

Kayla Harrison

Invested

$3,332.37

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3426-2517 (5943)

BreakTheBank

Kayla Harrison

Invested

$1,305.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$8.85

Record

42%

594-837 (1431)

0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003

Kayla Harrison

Invested

$390.38

Value

$393.58

PnL

+$3.2

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Amanda Nunes

Invested

$375.96

Value

$366.32

PnL

-$9.64

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

VeryLucky888CTR

Amanda Nunes

Invested

$2,225.17

Value

$268.73

PnL

+$25.24

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

darkumbreon88

Kayla Harrison

Invested

$226.86

Value

$223.2

PnL

-$3.66

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Amanda Nunes

Invested

$100

Value

$97.44

PnL

-$2.56

Record

30%

10-23 (33)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Amanda Nunes

Invested

$21.32

Value

$20.77

PnL

-$0.55

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100

Kayla Harrison

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

—

14-5 (19)

Research grade

NeutralKayla Harrison at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kayla Harrison

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Kayla Harrison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Amanda Nunes) and the top 1000 (8 on Kayla Harrison) disagree here.

whaleKayla Harrison 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpKayla Harrison 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAmanda Nunes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedAmanda Nunes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kayla Harrison 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kayla Harrison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.