Utah vs. Arizona: O/U 55.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$52.71

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,463

Combined PnL+$42.15

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,143

Combined PnL+$10.56

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$32.26	56% 3787-2956 (6743)
nigiri99	Overavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15	51% 646-632 (1278)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 48¢	$877.44	$904.86	+$27.42	48% 58-63 (121)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$625.52	$608.62	-$16.9	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 51¢	$306	$303	-$3	48% 540-575 (1115)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 51¢	$206.04	$204.02	-$2.02	49% 676-717 (1393)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 52¢	$3.12	$3.03	-$0.09	50% 2696-2676 (5372)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.94	$2.98	+$0.03	55% 5758-4807 (10565)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,420

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$32.26

Record

56%

3787-2956 (6743)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$877.44

Value

$904.86

PnL

+$27.42

Record

48%

58-63 (121)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$625.52

Value

$608.62

PnL

-$16.9

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$306

Value

$303

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

540-575 (1115)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$206.04

Value

$204.02

PnL

-$2.02

Record

49%

676-717 (1393)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.