Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LSU, while the market favors Texas (51%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: LSU (-4.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold LSU (70%) · LSU at 50¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 15

LSU50¢Texas50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LSU

Consensus Traders

LSU 70%

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

-$196.26

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Texas 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU50%

Texas51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU7 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares23,316

Combined PnL-$122.15

Texas3 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,820

Combined PnL-$74.11

LSU — 70%Texas — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (6 on LSU) disagree here.

sniperTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000LSU 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	LSUavg 50¢	$7.5K	$7.4K	-$74.67	49% 635-674 (1309)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Texasavg 50¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$61.54	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
BT BTCGambler247	Texasavg 52¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$135	— 1-1 (2)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	LSUavg 51¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$39	3% 18-515 (533)
38 38791873984189CTR	LSUavg 49.5¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	+$2.4	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	LSUavg 50¢	$750	$742.5	-$7.5	12% 14-103 (117)
NM NM-PCTR	LSUavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR	LSUavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
GH ghorrock<$100	Texasavg 52.4¢	$17.32	$11.64	-$0.65	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	LSUavg 48¢	$2.88	$3	+$0.12	47% 895-992 (1887)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

LSU

Invested

$7,467

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$74.67

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Texas

Invested

$6,153.51

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$61.54

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

BTCGambler247

Texas

Invested

$2,340

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$135

Record

—

1-1 (2)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

LSU

Invested

$1,988.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$39

Record

18-515 (533)

38791873984189CTR

LSU

Invested

$1,850.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Crazyboy77CTR

LSU

Invested

$750

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

12%

14-103 (117)

NM-PCTR

LSU

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR

LSU

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

ghorrock<$100

Texas

Invested

$17.32

Value

$11.64

PnL

-$0.65

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

LSU

Invested

$2.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Texas 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (6 on LSU) disagree here.

sniperTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000LSU 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LSU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.