Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas, while the market favors LSU (56%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: LSU (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texas (56%) · Texas at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

LSU56¢Texas44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas

Consensus Traders

Texas 56%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$9.22

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 44.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU56%

Texas45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL-$9.51

LSU4 traders

Total Value$894.38

Total Shares1,623

Combined PnL+$0.29

Texas — 56%LSU — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (6 on LSU) disagree here.

ctrTexas 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Texasavg 44.9¢	$729.73	$723.04	-$6.69	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
AU Aurelius7	LSUavg 55¢	$675	$675	+$0	3% 5-139 (144)
nigiri99CTR	Texasavg 45¢	$211.05	$208.71	-$2.34	52% 602-565 (1167)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texasavg 45.1¢	$216.71	$195.23	-$0.11	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
DA darkumbreon88	LSUavg 55¢	$107.81	$108.79	+$0.98	61% 1053-665 (1718)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	LSUavg 56¢	$77.52	$76.83	-$0.69	4% 14-330 (344)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Texasavg 45¢	$68.85	$68.09	-$0.77	45% 277-332 (609)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	LSUavg 55¢	$33.76	$33.76	+$0	5% 19-393 (412)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Texasavg 45.8¢	$15.08	$15.48	+$0.4	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

VeryLucky888CTR

Texas

Invested

$729.73

Value

$723.04

PnL

-$6.69

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Aurelius7

LSU

Invested

$675

Value

$675

PnL

+$0

Record

5-139 (144)

nigiri99CTR

Texas

Invested

$211.05

Value

$208.71

PnL

-$2.34

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

38791873984189CTR

Texas

Invested

$216.71

Value

$195.23

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

darkumbreon88

LSU

Invested

$107.81

Value

$108.79

PnL

+$0.98

Record

61%

1053-665 (1718)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

LSU

Invested

$77.52

Value

$76.83

PnL

-$0.69

Record

14-330 (344)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$68.85

Value

$68.09

PnL

-$0.77

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

LSU

Invested

$33.76

Value

$33.76

PnL

+$0

Record

19-393 (412)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

NeutralTexas at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texas) and the top 1000 (6 on LSU) disagree here.

ctrTexas 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.