Spread: Kings (-1.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (45%) · Flames at 62¢ · $623 held · ended Nov 15

Kings38¢Flames62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flames

Consensus Traders

Flames 45%

Total Value

$622.56

Combined PnL

-$4.33

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 62¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlames at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kings38%

Flames62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flames5 traders

Total Value$441.03

Total Shares723

Combined PnL-$8.46

Kings6 traders

Total Value$181.53

Total Shares484

Combined PnL+$4.13

Flames — 45%Kings — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlames 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlames 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Flames 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Flamesavg 62¢	$184.41	$181.43	-$2.97	24% 205-655 (860)
nigiri99	Flamesavg 63¢	$160.65	$155.55	-$5.1	51% 646-632 (1278)
38 38791873984189<$100	Flamesavg 61¢	$72.61	$72.61	+$0	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kingsavg 35¢	$53.85	$55.38	+$1.54	50% 2696-2676 (5372)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 37¢	$42.2	$44.48	+$2.28	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
TA taylorsversionCTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$43.67	$42.52	-$1.15	53% 109-98 (207)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Kingsavg 37.3¢	$32.85	$34.36	+$1.51	48% 402-433 (835)
PU purplegatto<$100	Flamesavg 62¢	$24	$23.61	-$0.39	68% 2657-1243 (3900)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100	Flamesavg 61¢	$7.82	$7.82	-$0	48% 13-14 (27)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Kingsavg 37¢	$2.94	$2.94	-$0	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.85	-$0.05	42% 763-1062 (1825)

hi774c

Flames

Invested

$184.41

Value

$181.43

PnL

-$2.97

Record

24%

205-655 (860)

nigiri99

Flames

Invested

$160.65

Value

$155.55

PnL

-$5.1

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

38791873984189<$100

Flames

Invested

$72.61

Value

$72.61

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$53.85

Value

$55.38

PnL

+$1.54

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$42.2

Value

$44.48

PnL

+$2.28

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

taylorsversionCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$43.67

Value

$42.52

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

109-98 (207)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$32.85

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$1.51

Record

48%

402-433 (835)

purplegatto<$100

Flames

Invested

$24

Value

$23.61

PnL

-$0.39

Record

68%

2657-1243 (3900)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100

Flames

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

763-1062 (1825)

Research grade

NeutralFlames at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlames 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlames 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Flames 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flames wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.