Kobe: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Nitin Kumar Sinha

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine (25%) · Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 22

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine88¢Nitin Kumar Sinha12¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Consensus Traders

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 25%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$47.78

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 87.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine88%

Nitin Kumar Sinha13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine2 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,844

Combined PnL-$157.47

Nitin Kumar Sinha6 traders

Total Value$602.2

Total Shares5,232

Combined PnL+$109.7

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine — 25%Nitin Kumar Sinha — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNitin Kumar Sinha 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNitin Kumar Sinha 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Nitin Kumar Sinha 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Constantin Bittoun Kouzmineavg 90.6¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$161.77	38% 17-28 (45)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Nitin Kumar Sinhaavg 9¢	$170.58	$217.96	+$47.38	46% 568-669 (1237)
nigiri99CTR	Nitin Kumar Sinhaavg 9¢	$142.38	$181.93	+$39.55	51% 646-632 (1278)
EF efntrickCTR	Nitin Kumar Sinhaavg 10.2¢	$133.76	$150.79	+$17.03	45% 100-121 (221)
GA Gaditima<$100	Constantin Bittoun Kouzmineavg 87¢	$53.88	$58.18	+$4.3	49% 333-346 (679)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nitin Kumar Sinhaavg 10¢	$36.36	$41.97	+$5.61	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Nitin Kumar Sinhaavg 13¢	$6.85	$6.59	-$0.26	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Nitin Kumar Sinhaavg 10¢	$2.57	$2.95	+$0.39	49% 4352-4620 (8972)

0000.

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Invested

$7,056.84

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$161.77

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Nitin Kumar Sinha

Invested

$170.58

Value

$217.96

PnL

+$47.38

Record

46%

568-669 (1237)

nigiri99CTR

Nitin Kumar Sinha

Invested

$142.38

Value

$181.93

PnL

+$39.55

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

efntrickCTR

Nitin Kumar Sinha

Invested

$133.76

Value

$150.79

PnL

+$17.03

Record

45%

100-121 (221)

Gaditima<$100

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Invested

$53.88

Value

$58.18

PnL

+$4.3

Record

49%

333-346 (679)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nitin Kumar Sinha

Invested

$36.36

Value

$41.97

PnL

+$5.61

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

suntoriCTR<$100

Nitin Kumar Sinha

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0.26

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Nitin Kumar Sinha

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.39

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

Research grade

NeutralConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNitin Kumar Sinha 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNitin Kumar Sinha 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Nitin Kumar Sinha 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.