Spread: Ducks (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (25%) · Islanders at 71¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 15

Ducks30¢Islanders70¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Islanders

Consensus Traders

Islanders 25%

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.04

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ducks30%

Islanders71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders2 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares17,657

Combined PnL+$88.29

Ducks6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares17,659

Combined PnL-$88.33

Islanders — 25%Ducks — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDucks 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Ducks 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Islandersavg 71¢	$11.1K	$11.2K	+$78.39	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Ducksavg 29¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$78.19	46% 41-48 (89)
0xheavy888	Islandersavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.9	56% 541-433 (974)
nigiri99CTR	Ducksavg 30¢	$572.93	$563.45	-$9.48	52% 602-565 (1167)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Ducksavg 30¢	$20.1	$19.77	-$0.34	45% 277-332 (609)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ducksavg 29¢	$9.8	$9.64	-$0.17	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ducksavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.42	-$0.13	46% 526-624 (1150)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Ducksavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.42	-$0.03	41% 708-1019 (1727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Islanders

Invested

$11,130.67

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$78.39

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Ducks

Invested

$4,535.08

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$78.19

Record

46%

41-48 (89)

0xheavy888

Islanders

Invested

$1,386

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.9

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

nigiri99CTR

Ducks

Invested

$572.93

Value

$563.45

PnL

-$9.48

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$20.1

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$0.34

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.64

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

526-624 (1150)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDucks 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Ducks 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Islanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.