Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma State (43%) · Oklahoma State at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Texas Tech40¢Oklahoma State60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma State

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma State 43%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$0.91

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech40%

Oklahoma State61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma State3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,341

Combined PnL-$15.63

Texas Tech4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,709

Combined PnL+$14.72

Oklahoma State — 43%Texas Tech — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma State 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Oklahoma Stateavg 61¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$16	3% 17-515 (532)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Texas Techavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.6	56% 3686-2847 (6533)
HI hi774cCTR	Texas Techavg 39¢	$195	$195	-$0	23% 179-616 (795)
38 38791873984189<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 60¢	$44.27	$44.64	+$0.37	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
GH ghorrock<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 60¢	$40.36	$40.36	+$0	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 40¢	$26.4	$25.74	-$0.66	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 40¢	$9	$8.78	-$0.23	42% 979-1345 (2324)

JAMJAMJAM4

Oklahoma State

Invested

$1,952

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$16

Record

17-515 (532)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,216.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.6

Record

56%

3686-2847 (6533)

hi774cCTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$195

Value

$195

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

179-616 (795)

38791873984189<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$44.27

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

ghorrock<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$40.36

Value

$40.36

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$26.4

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$0.66

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

sentrioCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.23

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma State at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma State

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOklahoma State 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.