Wyoming vs. UTEP: O/U 43.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$176.99

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 69.5¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,745

Combined PnL+$140.75

Over8 traders

Total Value$794.2

Total Shares1,808

Combined PnL+$36.24

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 58.6¢	$756.97	$897.4	+$140.44	59% 1050-730 (1780)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 42¢	$328.86	$344.52	+$15.66	51% 646-632 (1278)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 42¢	$264.26	$276.95	+$12.69	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 58¢	$1.2K	$235.83	+$1.76	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$86	$87	+$1	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$51.16	$56.28	+$5.12	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Underavg 60¢	$21.68	$20.23	-$1.45	56% 175-139 (314)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$10.75	$10.88	+$0.13	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$7.38	$7.47	+$0.09	50% 2696-2676 (5372)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$5.25	$6.6	+$1.35	35% 128-233 (361)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$4.3	$4.5	+$0.2	38% 1210-2005 (3215)

primm

Under

Invested

$756.97

Value

$897.4

PnL

+$140.44

Record

59%

1050-730 (1780)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$328.86

Value

$344.52

PnL

+$15.66

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$264.26

Value

$276.95

PnL

+$12.69

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,229.07

Value

$235.83

PnL

+$1.76

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86

Value

$87

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.16

Value

$56.28

PnL

+$5.12

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Under

Invested

$21.68

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$1.45

Record

56%

175-139 (314)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.47

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.25

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$1.35

Record

35%

128-233 (361)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

1210-2005 (3215)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.