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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Bignum | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | VirIntrepidus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 33% (9–18, n=27) | 52% (590–548, n=1138) | 53% (529–468, n=997) | 88% (15–2, n=17) |
| Consensus PnL | -$4.6K | $400K | $639K | $475K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #953 | PM monthly #10 | PM monthly #52 | PM monthly #57 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 67% (67 of 100 open) | 59% (26 of 44 open) | 44% (4 of 9 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 67% of 15 at avg 34¢, ROI +15% | 100% of 317 at avg 53¢, ROI +48% | 77% of 769 at avg 54¢, ROI +11% | 100% of 15 at avg 49¢, ROI +40% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 40% (won 50% of 6) | 2% (won 100% of 6) | 12% (won 44% of 90) | 13% (won 100% of 2) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 40% (won 67% of 6) | 32% (won 100% of 100) | 25% (won 71% of 190) | 40% (won 100% of 6) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 13% (won 100% of 2) | 60% (won 100% of 189) | 45% (won 80% of 347) | 33% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 7% (won 100% of 1) | 7% (won 100% of 22) | 18% (won 99% of 142) | 13% (won 100% of 2) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Bignum | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | VirIntrepidus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Lions (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Lions | — | Patriots $7.0K | Patriots $6.9K | Lions $34K |
| Spread: Packers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Packers | — | Vikings $7.9K | Packers $2.4K | Vikings $8.3K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Titans | — | Jaguars $1.1K | Jaguars $1.3K | Titans $8.2K |
| Spread: Lions (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Patriots | — | Lions $32 | Patriots $194 | Lions $4.0K |
| Pepperdine Waves vs. Oregon Ducks opposite sides · consensus Oregon Ducks | — | Oregon Ducks $7.2K | Pepperdine Waves $156K | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions opposite sides · consensus Lions | — | Patriots $11K | — | Lions $17K |
| Panthers vs. Saints opposite sides · consensus Panthers | — | Saints $26K | Panthers $238 | — |
| Spread: Texans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Browns $3.2K | Texans $8.1K | — |
| 49ers vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus 49ers | — | 49ers $8.4K | — | Cowboys $275 |
| Spread: Packers (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Vikings | — | Vikings $6.0K | Packers $6 | — |
| Rams vs. Cardinals opposite sides · consensus Rams | — | Rams $5.4K | Cardinals $199 | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K | — |
| Vikings vs. Packers same side · consensus Packers | — | Vikings $6.7K | — | Vikings $6.5K |
| Spread: Texans (-3.5) same side · consensus Browns | — | Browns $2.5K | Browns $1.2K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts same side · consensus Colts | — | Colts $2.0K | Colts $3 | — |
| Bills vs. Jets: O/U 48.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $1.4K | Under $489 | — |
| Rockets vs. Wizards same side · consensus Rockets | — | Rockets $321 | Rockets $72 | — |