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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankbtnaferrariChampions2026Flaznorp
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)67% (47–23, n=70)44% (11396–14488, n=25884)52% (7739–7030, n=14769)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$57K-$8.8M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #493was PM monthly #87PM monthly #16
Sides with the consensus83% (29 of 35 open)67% (4 of 6 open)70% (23 of 33 open)77% (93 of 121 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=26, ROI −2%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic———Other Sports −28 pts, n=15
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%61% of 46 at avg 52¢, ROI +3%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)28% (won 31% of 13)4% (won 97% of 237)29% (won 11% of 403)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)15% (won 57% of 7)26% (won 100% of 1446)16% (won 38% of 228)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)30% (won 64% of 14)40% (won 100% of 2198)15% (won 62% of 214)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)26% (won 92% of 12)30% (won 100% of 1675)40% (won 94% of 553)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankbtnaferrariChampions2026Flaznorp
Penguins vs. Ducks
opposite sides · consensus Ducks
——Ducks $34KPenguins $14
Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pelicans
——Pelicans $23KClippers $567
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $18K—No $97
Spread: Heat (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Heat
——Kings $4.5KHeat $1.7K
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $148Yes $2.7K
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $96—Buccaneers $26—
WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
same side · consensus Coco Gauff
——Coco Gauff $91KCoco Gauff $17K
Knoxville: Patrick Zahraj vs Sebastian Dominko
same side · consensus Patrick Zahraj
——Patrick Zahraj $65KPatrick Zahraj $5.9K
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $12K—Bears $27K—
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
——Celtics $28KCeltics $2.3K
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $19KUnder $1.6K
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
same side · consensus Bilibili Gaming
——Bilibili Gaming $20KBilibili Gaming $273
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $1.2KUnder $13K
Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Diraiyah Saudi Club end in a draw?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $13K—Yes $192
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $5.4K—Yes $996
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $115Under $2.2K
Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $1.3K—Under $802—