Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (27%) · Pelicans at 51¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 9

Pelicans51¢Clippers49¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 27%

Total Value

$48.5K

Combined PnL

$1.38

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans51%

Clippers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares48,359

Combined PnL-$241.68

Clippers8 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares48,553

Combined PnL+$243.06

Pelicans — 27%Clippers — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrClippers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Pelicansavg 51¢	$19.9K	$19.7K	-$195.4	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Clippersavg 49¢	$18.9K	$19.1K	+$193.07	48% 520-559 (1079)
nehcnehc	Pelicansavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$46.33	61% 4522-2835 (7357)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Clippersavg 49¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$46.34	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Clippersavg 49¢	$196	$198	+$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$83.72	$84.59	+$0.87	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$20.79	$21.29	+$0.5	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$18.94	$19.13	+$0.19	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$6.67	$6.73	+$0.07	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
NM NM-P<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$10.1	$5.1	+$0.05	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.02	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

ferrariChampions2026

Pelicans

Invested

$19,930.76

Value

$19.7K

PnL

-$195.4

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Clippers

Invested

$18,920.57

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$193.07

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

nehcnehc

Pelicans

Invested

$4,726.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$46.33

Record

61%

4522-2835 (7357)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Clippers

Invested

$4,541.63

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$46.34

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Clippers

Invested

$196

Value

$198

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$83.72

Value

$84.59

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$20.79

Value

$21.29

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$18.94

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

NM-P<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$10.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

sentrioCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrClippers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.