Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?

12 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 96¢ · $122K held · ends Nov 7

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$121.7K

Combined PnL

$36.7K

Smart Money Entry

36.4¢ → 95.9¢

+164% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 29 top traders (41%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$113.2K

Total Shares115,767

Combined PnL+$70.6K

No17 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares61,095

Combined PnL$-33.9K

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shineforever	Yesavg 35¢	$16.4K	$45.9K	+$29.5K	58% 83-61 (144)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 42¢	$8.7K	$20.3K	+$11.6K	83% 81-17 (98)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 34.2¢	$5.4K	$15.3K	+$10.0K	— 4-0 (4)
morito181	Yesavg 37¢	$4.5K	$11.8K	+$6.9K	61% 860-552 (1412)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 20.7¢	$1.8K	$7.1K	+$5.3K	62% 179-108 (287)
BT btna	Yesavg 63.3¢	$3.4K	$5.3K	+$1.9K	71% 42-17 (59)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 17.5¢	$736.67	$4.1K	+$3.4K	75% 110-36 (146)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 67.6¢	$31.6K	$4.0K	$-27.6K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.6¢	$31.2K	$3.0K	$-28.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$379	$972.43	+$593.43
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 60.1¢	$31.2K	$3.4K	$-29.3K	50% 525-521 (1046)
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 33¢	$900.02	$2.7K	+$1.8K	— 13-3 (16)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$3.3K	$514.09	$-2.8K	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.4¢	$3.2K	$352.98	$-2.9K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.8¢	$135.1	$161.11	+$19.48
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 83.2¢	$910.58	$438.91	+$145.8	60% 911-595 (1506)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 55.3¢	$221.32	$391.49	+$170.17	54% 115-97 (212)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 80.2¢	$2.0K	$163.73	$-1.8K	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 69.2¢	$1.3K	$119.93	$-1.1K	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 24.9¢	$561.1	$105.26	-$288.73	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 85¢	$1.1K	$88.43	$-1.1K	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$24	$52.4	+$28.4	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$45.68	$17.48	-$40.44	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
DI dips.<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$11.7	$12.67	-$0.31	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 33.5¢	$181.01	$11.36	-$169.65	63% 712-413 (1125)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 22.6¢	$191.72	$7.55	-$19.58	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 97.2¢	$4.86	$4.8	-$0.07	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 24.3¢	$44.71	$3	-$8.14	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$21.04	$1.62	-$19.42	44% 6482-8172 (14654)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$16,400.09

Value

$45.9K

PnL

+$29.5K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$8,701.46

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$11.6K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$5,354.67

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$4,464.09

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,756.42

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

62%

179-108 (287)

btna

Yes

Invested

$3,403.23

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$736.67

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$31,609.51

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-27.6K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

No$31,230.5167.6¢$-28.2K

Yes$37938¢+$593.43

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$31,237.08

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-29.3K

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$900.02

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$3,334.28

Value

$514.09

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

Both legs:

No$3,199.1859.4¢$-2.9K

Yes$135.181.8¢+$19.48

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$910.58

Value

$438.91

PnL

+$145.8

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$221.32

Value

$391.49

PnL

+$170.17

Record

54%

115-97 (212)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$2,003.57

Value

$163.73

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,267.57

Value

$119.93

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$561.1

Value

$105.26

PnL

-$288.73

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,147.5

Value

$88.43

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$52.4

PnL

+$28.4

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$45.68

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$40.44

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.67

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$169.65

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$191.72

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$19.58

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.07

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$44.71

Value

PnL

-$8.14

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$21.04

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$19.42

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 29 top traders (41%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.