LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (46%) · Bilibili Gaming at 56¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming56¢T144¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 46%

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$25.75

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming56%

T144%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares17,224

Combined PnL+$2.23

T17 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares14,741

Combined PnL+$23.53

Bilibili Gaming — 46%T1 — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bilibili Gaming) and the top 1000 (7 on T1) disagree here.

whaleBilibili Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000T1 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arjennnnn	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$33.33	70% 855-364 (1219)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	T1avg 43¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$43.2	64% 49-27 (76)
RA Rayaya	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$25	61% 1227-797 (2024)
BI biying88888	Bilibili Gamingavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$14.92	66% 173-91 (264)
FR freeman123	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$41.41	82% 587-129 (716)
PL pltrkr111CTR	T1avg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$13.37	55% 790-658 (1448)
nigiri99CTR	T1avg 46.2¢	$345.86	$878.27	-$10.1	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
GR gregbeastCTR	T1avg 45.2¢	$542.78	$522	-$20.78	39% 180-285 (465)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$73.96	$74.63	+$0.66	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	T1avg 45.2¢	$73.73	$71.72	-$2.01	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 57¢	$43.99	$43.55	-$0.44	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	T1avg 44¢	$17.93	$17.73	-$0.2	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	T1avg 43¢	$2.15	$2.2	+$0.05	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

arjennnnn

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$3,732.83

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$33.33

Record

70%

855-364 (1219)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

Invested

$3,714.91

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$43.2

Record

64%

49-27 (76)

Rayaya

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2,799.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$25

Record

61%

1227-797 (2024)

biying88888

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,700.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$14.92

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

freeman123

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,397.41

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$41.41

Record

82%

587-129 (716)

pltrkr111CTR

Invested

$1,150

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.37

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

nigiri99CTR

Invested

$345.86

Value

$878.27

PnL

-$10.1

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

gregbeastCTR

Invested

$542.78

Value

$522

PnL

-$20.78

Record

39%

180-285 (465)

ghorrock<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$73.96

Value

$74.63

PnL

+$0.66

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Invested

$73.73

Value

$71.72

PnL

-$2.01

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$43.99

Value

$43.55

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$17.93

Value

$17.73

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bilibili Gaming) and the top 1000 (7 on T1) disagree here.

whaleBilibili Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000T1 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.