Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 16 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw?

16 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 8.6¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 6

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$48.8K

Combined PnL

$8.3K

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 8.6¢

-82% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 26 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$42.6K

Total Shares46,534

Combined PnL+$22.3K

No16 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares45,332

Combined PnL$-14.0K

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (24 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 51.1¢	$9.1K	$16.3K	+$7.2K	74% 42-15 (57)
shineforever	Yesavg 36.3¢	$3.6K	$9.1K	+$5.5K	58% 83-61 (144)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 29.4¢	$1.8K	$5.7K	+$3.9K	63% 174-104 (278)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 51.3¢	$3.7K	$5.7K	+$2.9K	61% 907-592 (1499)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$17.4K	$4.2K	$-13.4K	51% 23562-22316 (45878)
morito181	Yesavg 44.9¢	$1.0K	$2.0K	+$1.0K	61% 849-552 (1401)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 37.2¢	$467.29	$1.3K	+$848.1	53% 172-153 (325)
xxNyx	Yesavg 66.2¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$594.39	82% 1766-399 (2165)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Yesavg 38.2¢	$206.21	$493.95	+$287.74	82% 77-17 (94)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$618.4	$412.62	-$205.79	50% 20329-20686 (41015)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 38.1¢	$371.27	$406.97	+$35.69	54% 22131-19228 (41359)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 52.2¢	$343.14	$357.15	+$14.02	59% 3657-2550 (6207)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 71.5¢	$288	$234	-$54	58% 44835-32630 (77465)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 43.3¢	$780.12	$233.97	-$546.15	47% 14510-16080 (30590)
DI dips.	Yesavg 88.5¢	$217.37	$224.59	+$6.98	47% 10208-11560 (21768)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 52.9¢	$892.1	$219.34	-$672.76	51% 7440-7178 (14618)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 4.3¢	$51.44	$156	+$104.56	20% 2524-10014 (12538)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 18.7¢	$380.89	$148.49	-$63.65	43% 3090-4141 (7231)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 28.6¢	$317.59	$127.4	-$153	60% 11537-7729 (19266)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$181.01	$41.66	-$139.35	63% 712-411 (1123)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$15.8	$14.3	+$107.83	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$15.05	$2.23	+$990.47	47% 1613-1794 (3407)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$9.99	$1.8	-$8.19	74% 2400-839 (3239)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$27.31	$1.61	-$2.05	47% 2072-2346 (4418)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$39.57	$1.35	-$1.71	38% 977-1591 (2568)

btna

Yes

Invested

$9,128.34

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

74%

42-15 (57)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$3,592.21

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,840.52

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

63%

174-104 (278)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$3,653.36

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

61%

907-592 (1499)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$17,414.72

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-13.4K

Record

51%

23562-22316 (45878)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$1,003.3

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

61%

849-552 (1401)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$467.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$848.1

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$1,465.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$594.39

Record

82%

1766-399 (2165)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Yes

Invested

$206.21

Value

$493.95

PnL

+$287.74

Record

82%

77-17 (94)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$618.4

Value

$412.62

PnL

-$205.79

Record

50%

20329-20686 (41015)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$371.27

Value

$406.97

PnL

+$35.69

Record

54%

22131-19228 (41359)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$343.14

Value

$357.15

PnL

+$14.02

Record

59%

3657-2550 (6207)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$288

Value

$234

PnL

-$54

Record

58%

44835-32630 (77465)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$780.12

Value

$233.97

PnL

-$546.15

Record

47%

14510-16080 (30590)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$217.37

Value

$224.59

PnL

+$6.98

Record

47%

10208-11560 (21768)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$892.1

Value

$219.34

PnL

-$672.76

Record

51%

7440-7178 (14618)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$51.44

Value

$156

PnL

+$104.56

Record

20%

2524-10014 (12538)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$380.89

Value

$148.49

PnL

-$63.65

Record

43%

3090-4141 (7231)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$317.59

Value

$127.4

PnL

-$153

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$41.66

PnL

-$139.35

Record

63%

712-411 (1123)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$107.83

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$15.05

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$990.47

Record

47%

1613-1794 (3407)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$8.19

Record

74%

2400-839 (3239)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$27.31

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$2.05

Record

47%

2072-2346 (4418)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$39.57

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$1.71

Record

38%

977-1591 (2568)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 26 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (24 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.1%

8.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$891.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

991.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.