Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Diraiyah Saudi Club end in a draw?

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 97¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 7

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$32.0K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 97.4¢

+80% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$30.2K

Total Shares32,280

Combined PnL+$13.1K

No10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares18,536

Combined PnL$-7.2K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 52.9¢	$6.9K	$12.6K	+$5.7K	71% 42-17 (59)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1.6K	$5.8K	+$4.2K	62% 179-108 (287)
DI dips.	Yesavg 95.7¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$209.6	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 36.7¢	$1.0K	$2.8K	+$1.8K	52% 173-159 (332)
morito181	Yesavg 40.8¢	$1.2K	$2.7K	+$1.5K	61% 860-552 (1412)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 58.7¢	$6.4K	$1.1K	$-5.3K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
xxNyx	Yesavg 84.1¢	$905.51	$914.51	+$9	82% 1801-403 (2204)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 73.9¢	$372.38	$460.65	+$108.42	60% 911-595 (1506)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 90.9¢	$393.89	$392.82	-$1.07	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 28.8¢	$703.77	$208.7	-$485.84	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 28.2¢	$770.42	$125.72	-$267.73	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 73¢	$985.5	$115.43	-$870.08	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 3.3¢	$39.45	$102.54	+$63.09	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
shineforever<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$24.97	$75.49	+$50.52	58% 83-61 (144)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 26.9¢	$275.66	$54.78	-$121.27	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 56.5¢	$211.06	$31.96	-$179.1	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$98.74	$9.17	-$89.57	63% 712-413 (1125)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	No	$4.17	$4.17	+$0	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
bot-rapin<$100	Yesavg 37.9¢	$0.47	$1.19	+$0.72	— 4-0 (4)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$10	$1.14	-$8.86	74% 2423-864 (3287)

btna

Yes

Invested

$6,873.82

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,631.62

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

62%

179-108 (287)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$4,729.68

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$209.6

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$1,007.82

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$1,185.34

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$6,350.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$905.51

Value

$914.51

PnL

+$9

Record

82%

1801-403 (2204)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$372.38

Value

$460.65

PnL

+$108.42

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$393.89

Value

$392.82

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$703.77

Value

$208.7

PnL

-$485.84

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$770.42

Value

$125.72

PnL

-$267.73

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$985.5

Value

$115.43

PnL

-$870.08

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$39.45

Value

$102.54

PnL

+$63.09

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

shineforever<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.97

Value

$75.49

PnL

+$50.52

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$275.66

Value

$54.78

PnL

-$121.27

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$211.06

Value

$31.96

PnL

-$179.1

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$98.74

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$89.57

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

bot-rapin<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0.72

Record

—

4-0 (4)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$8.86

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.