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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465FlaznorpGdubRN1
Record (consensus markets)58% (4521–3297, n=7818)52% (6520–6024, n=12544)72% (619–237, n=856)47% (14133–15621, n=29754)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$3.5M$13K$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #68PM monthly #23was PM monthly #999PM monthly #29 + pinned
Sides with the consensus60% (15 of 25 open)70% (309 of 439 open)73% (16 of 22 open)62% (123 of 200 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134Other Sports −13 pts, n=22Elections −1 pts, n=146—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%77% of 779 at avg 74¢, ROI +1%94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)29% (won 11% of 465)12% (won 15% of 95)10% (won 57% of 2593)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)16% (won 40% of 255)8% (won 41% of 59)22% (won 94% of 5682)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)16% (won 62% of 260)9% (won 67% of 70)35% (won 99% of 9181)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)39% (won 94% of 637)71% (won 93% of 555)33% (won 100% of 8519)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

95 on the same side, 60 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465FlaznorpGdubRN1
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
opposite sides · consensus Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz $119KArthur Fils $8.6K—Taylor Fritz $29K
Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $11No $93K—No $41K
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $211KYes $24K—Yes $11K
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?
same side · consensus No
No $87KNo $7.3K—No $26K
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $25KUnder $3.2K—Under $58
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
No $29No $13K—No $1.9K
Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
No $106No $6.2K—No $8.0K
Cali: Julia Riera vs Renata Zarazua
same side · consensus Julia Riera
Julia Riera $870Julia Riera $4.8K—Julia Riera $7.7K
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
No $161No $4.1K—No $213
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $3.1K—Over $12K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $13K—Over $1.5K
K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $13KUnder $1.6K——
Lillestrøm SK vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $9.8K—Yes $1.7K
Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus AC Milan
—AC Milan $9.1K—Ferencvárosi TC $1.2K
Will Inter Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $10K—Yes $95
FC Twente vs. Páfos FC: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $6.4KUnder $948——
AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $2.7K—Over $3.9K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $4.4K—Yes $1.9K
PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $4.9K—Under $750
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $10——No $5.0K
Charlottesville: Daniel Milavsky vs Max Hans Rehberg
opposite sides · consensus Max Hans Rehberg
—Daniel Milavsky $697—Max Hans Rehberg $4.3K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $586—Over $3.3K
Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $3.6K—Yes $85
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $2.7K—Over $470
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $3.1K—Yes $7
Will Mjällby AIF win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $2.3K—No $554
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $2.6K—Over $36
W35 Orlando, FL: Lavinia Tanasie vs Whitney Osuigwe
opposite sides · consensus Whitney Osuigwe
—Whitney Osuigwe $2.1K—Lavinia Tanasie $5
Exact Score: AC Sparta Praha 1 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $1.5K—Yes $515
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $40—No $1.9K—
FC Twente vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $43—Over $1.9K
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Ferencvárosi TC?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $369—No $1.4K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $476—Under $1.3K
Lillestrøm SK vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $452—Over $1.2K
RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $880—Over $725
M25 Harlingen, TX: Jordan Lee vs Keaton Hance
opposite sides · consensus Keaton Hance
—Keaton Hance $1.0K—Jordan Lee $556
Will FK Borac Banja Luka win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $1.5K—Yes $16
K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $446—Over $675
Exact Score: AC Sparta Praha 2 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $819—Yes $224
Exact Score: Kuopion PS 1 - 0 KAA Gent?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $393—No $627
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $466—No $529
Will PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $674—No $202
PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $338—Yes $515
W75 Petange: Lisa Pigato vs Greet Minnen
opposite sides · consensus Greet Minnen
—Greet Minnen $686—Lisa Pigato $48
Will FC Thun vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $692—Yes $5
W50 Huamantla: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Valeriya Strakhova
opposite sides · consensus Valeriya Strakhova
—Anastasia Tikhonova $371—Valeriya Strakhova $196
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $6—Over $502
AC Sparta Praha vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $418—Over $71
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 0 Ferencvárosi TC?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $387—No $89
Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Ferencvárosi TC?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $14—Yes $431