Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 72¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$52.34

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 71.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares12,238

Combined PnL-$47.77

No5 traders

Total Value$95.82

Total Shares348

Combined PnL-$4.57

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 72.3¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$24.29	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 72.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$18.71	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$856.76	$836.22	-$20.54	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
└ No leg	Noavg 28.7¢	$532.4	$509.61	-$22.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$324.36	$326.61	+$2.25
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 73¢	$752.92	$721.9	-$5.15	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$715.31	$703.67	-$11.63	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$427.05	$430.01	+$2.97
└ No leg	Noavg 29¢	$288.26	$273.66	-$14.6
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 70.8¢	$602.03	$616.25	+$14.22	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 71.8¢	$316.63	$255.85	-$5.77	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
HRTrading	Yesavg 72.6¢	$239.49	$239.17	-$0.31	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 75¢	$107.49	$101.04	-$6.45	49% 3293-3423 (6716)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$92.45	$91.15	-$1.3	64% 1891-1048 (2939)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$48.15	$45.65	-$2.5	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$25.69	$24.36	-$1.33	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$18.79	$18.45	-$0.34	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$4.35	$4.13	-$0.23	52% 8576-7821 (16397)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$3.41	$3.23	-$0.18	52% 1146-1041 (2187)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$5,898.98

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$24.29

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,869.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$18.71

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$856.76

Value

$836.22

PnL

-$20.54

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

Both legs:

Invested

$752.92

Value

$721.9

PnL

-$5.15

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$715.31

Value

$703.67

PnL

-$11.63

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

Both legs:

Invested

$602.03

Value

$616.25

PnL

+$14.22

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$316.63

Value

$255.85

PnL

-$5.77

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$239.49

Value

$239.17

PnL

-$0.31

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$107.49

Value

$101.04

PnL

-$6.45

Record

49%

3293-3423 (6716)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.45

Value

$91.15

PnL

-$1.3

Record

64%

1891-1048 (2939)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$48.15

Value

$45.65

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$25.69

Value

$24.36

PnL

-$1.33

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$18.79

Value

$18.45

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

8576-7821 (16397)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.