Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 56¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 10
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Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$8.9K
$1.6K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77.1¢ | $4.7K | $4.0K | -$722.93 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.3K | $2.7K | +$1.4K | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
MI MinevaJCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.2K | $2.2K | +$994.49 | 58% 988-724 (1712) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.