W75 Petange: Lisa Pigato vs Greet Minnen

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Greet Minnen (42%) · Greet Minnen at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Lisa Pigato<1¢Greet Minnen>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Greet Minnen

Consensus Traders

Greet Minnen 42%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$113.06

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGreet Minnen at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Greet Minnen

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lisa Pigato0%

Greet Minnen100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Greet Minnen5 traders

Total Value$907.08

Total Shares1,022

Combined PnL+$198.81

Lisa Pigato7 traders

Total Value$149.62

Total Shares567

Combined PnL-$85.74

Greet Minnen — 42%Lisa Pigato — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Greet Minnenavg 69.7¢	$478.95	$685.62	+$207.47	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Greet Minnenavg 61.2¢	$157.9	$139.32	-$18.58	46% 1536-1808 (3344)
38 38791873984189<$100	Greet Minnenavg 87.4¢	$52	$58.47	+$6.47	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 32.4¢	$40.63	$57.68	+$5.14	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
RN1CTR	Lisa Pigatoavg 38.2¢	$138.89	$47.9	-$90.99	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 35¢	$17.5	$23	+$5.5	49% 4039-4157 (8196)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Greet Minnenavg 73¢	$13.42	$18.27	+$4.86	54% 6274-5339 (11613)
poshposhCTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 31¢	$8.91	$13.22	+$4.31	57% 12701-9766 (22467)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Greet Minnenavg 68.1¢	$6.81	$5.4	-$1.41	60% 4436-2970 (7406)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 36.1¢	$3.61	$4.6	+$0.05	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 36.1¢	$1.81	$2.3	+$0.49	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 14.5¢	$11.17	$0.92	-$10.25	50% 21164-21421 (42585)

Flaznorp

Greet Minnen

Invested

$478.95

Value

$685.62

PnL

+$207.47

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Greet Minnen

Invested

$157.9

Value

$139.32

PnL

-$18.58

Record

46%

1536-1808 (3344)

38791873984189<$100

Greet Minnen

Invested

$52

Value

$58.47

PnL

+$6.47

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$40.63

Value

$57.68

PnL

+$5.14

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

RN1CTR

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$138.89

Value

$47.9

PnL

-$90.99

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$17.5

Value

$23

PnL

+$5.5

Record

49%

4039-4157 (8196)

Eulhunter<$100

Greet Minnen

Invested

$13.42

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$4.86

Record

54%

6274-5339 (11613)

poshposhCTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$8.91

Value

$13.22

PnL

+$4.31

Record

57%

12701-9766 (22467)

thestingsnake<$100

Greet Minnen

Invested

$6.81

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.41

Record

60%

4436-2970 (7406)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$3.61

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$1.81

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$11.17

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$10.25

Record

50%

21164-21421 (42585)

Research grade

NeutralGreet Minnen at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Greet Minnen

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Greet Minnen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.