Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-11-05?

19 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 95¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 5

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 94.5¢

+26% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 27 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares28,692

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,329

Combined PnL-$96.75

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816	Noavg 74.9¢	$7.3K	$9.1K	+$1.8K	50% 5875-5910 (11785)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.1¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$164.31	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
GC GC-P	Noavg 71.8¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$81.66	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
NM NM-P	Noavg 71.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$16.68	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$30	67% 2798-1381 (4179)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 80.3¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$191.75	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
CA Cannae	Noavg 71.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$64.59	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$1.1K	$949.37	-$167.47	37% 517-868 (1385)
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$599.94	$644.38	+$44.44	50% 545-553 (1098)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 91.1¢	$563.66	$578.77	+$15.11	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
oieshfn345	Noavg 89.6¢	$409.73	$431.31	+$21.58	57% 2031-1503 (3534)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90.6¢	$250.17	$253.98	+$3.82	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
RN1	Noavg 85.3¢	$194.62	$213.32	+$18.71	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 71.6¢	$164.82	$205.26	+$40.44	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73¢	$191.54	$186.29	-$1.31	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 73.9¢	$167.53	$160.98	-$6.55	53% 6257-5538 (11795)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 79.5¢	$128.75	$134.46	+$5.72	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
VE Venusian	Noavg 89.3¢	$112.5	$117.81	+$5.31	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 93¢	$95.31	$97.88	+$2.58	46% 1536-1808 (3344)
└ No leg	Noavg 93¢	$79.71	$77.14	-$2.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.5¢	$15.59	$20.74	+$5.15
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$37.01	$34.22	-$2.79	49% 3215-3381 (6596)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$24.25	$22.4	-$1.85	84% 14846-2866 (17712)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 73¢	$15.9	$15.47	-$0.44	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$31.13	$14.83	-$6.9	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$7.51	$7.66	+$0.15	51% 6344-6129 (12473)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.68	+$0.18	34% 19149-36800 (55949)

0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816

Invested

$7,300.12

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

5875-5910 (11785)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,016.02

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$164.31

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

GC-P

Invested

$2,580.09

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$81.66

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

NM-P

Invested

$2,120.64

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$16.68

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,159.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

67%

2798-1381 (4179)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,586.65

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$191.75

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

Cannae

Invested

$1,444.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$64.59

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,116.83

Value

$949.37

PnL

-$167.47

Record

37%

517-868 (1385)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Yes

Invested

$599.94

Value

$644.38

PnL

+$44.44

Record

50%

545-553 (1098)

LightParadox

Invested

$563.66

Value

$578.77

PnL

+$15.11

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

oieshfn345

Invested

$409.73

Value

$431.31

PnL

+$21.58

Record

57%

2031-1503 (3534)

SnakeBall

Invested

$250.17

Value

$253.98

PnL

+$3.82

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

RN1

Invested

$194.62

Value

$213.32

PnL

+$18.71

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

38791873984189

Invested

$164.82

Value

$205.26

PnL

+$40.44

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$191.54

Value

$186.29

PnL

-$1.31

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$167.53

Value

$160.98

PnL

-$6.55

Record

53%

6257-5538 (11795)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$128.75

Value

$134.46

PnL

+$5.72

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

Venusian

Invested

$112.5

Value

$117.81

PnL

+$5.31

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$95.31

Value

$97.88

PnL

+$2.58

Record

46%

1536-1808 (3344)

Both legs:

Invested

$37.01

Value

$34.22

PnL

-$2.79

Record

49%

3215-3381 (6596)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$24.25

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$1.85

Record

84%

14846-2866 (17712)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.13

Value

$14.83

PnL

-$6.9

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

6344-6129 (12473)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 27 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.