Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Taylor Fritz, while the market favors Arthur Fils (54%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (64%) · Taylor Fritz at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Arthur Fils54¢Taylor Fritz46¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Taylor Fritz

Consensus Traders

Taylor Fritz 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$104.98

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 46.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTaylor Fritz at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Taylor Fritz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Arthur Fils 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Fils54%

Taylor Fritz47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Fils4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,700

Combined PnL-$114.39

Taylor Fritz7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,952

Combined PnL+$9.41

Arthur Fils — 36%Taylor Fritz — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Taylor Fritz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arthur Fils) and the top 1000 (11 on Taylor Fritz) disagree here.

whaleArthur Fils 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrArthur Fils 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Fils 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Taylor Fritz 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Arthur Filsavg 54¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	+$45.99	58% 46330-33448 (79778)
└ Arthur Fils leg	Arthur Filsavg 54¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.76
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 44¢	$954.61	$1.0K	+$59.74
OM omnibus-076daa	Arthur Filsavg 56.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$113.41	50% 21108-21355 (42463)
HI hi774cCTR	Taylor Fritzavg 44¢	$2.1K	$951.95	+$10.7	46% 5077-5890 (10967)
LI LimousinCTR	Taylor Fritzavg 47.2¢	$633.75	$623.8	-$9.95	53% 1400-1248 (2648)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Taylor Fritzavg 44¢	$1.2K	$519.32	+$5.84	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Taylor Fritzavg 44¢	$1.0K	$467.14	+$5.25	50% 4025-3975 (8000)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 44.4¢	$352	$269.75	+$9.75	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
└ Taylor Fritz leg	Taylor Fritzavg 44.4¢	$155.27	$162.75	+$10.75
└ Arthur Fils leg	Arthur Filsavg 54¢	$108	$107	-$1
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 47.2¢	$97.05	$95.53	-$1.52	51% 1362-1323 (2685)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Arthur Filsavg 54¢	$59.36	$58.81	-$0.55	64% 1955-1087 (3042)
0xheavy888<$100	Arthur Filsavg 54¢	$44.28	$43.87	-$0.41	56% 7879-6308 (14187)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 46.9¢	$39	$17.36	-$0.94	49% 4465-4662 (9127)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 44¢	$10.24	$4.56	+$0.05	61% 14179-9156 (23335)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Arthur Filsavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.68	-$0.02	52% 8742-7954 (16696)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$2,792.18

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$45.99

Record

58%

46330-33448 (79778)

Both legs:

Arthur Fils$1,668.2354¢-$13.76

Taylor Fritz$954.6144¢+$59.74

omnibus-076daa

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,969.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$113.41

Record

50%

21108-21355 (42463)

hi774cCTR

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$2,139.21

Value

$951.95

PnL

+$10.7

Record

46%

5077-5890 (10967)

LimousinCTR

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$633.75

Value

$623.8

PnL

-$9.95

Record

53%

1400-1248 (2648)

FlaznorpCTR

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$1,167

Value

$519.32

PnL

+$5.84

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$1,049.76

Value

$467.14

PnL

+$5.25

Record

50%

4025-3975 (8000)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$352

Value

$269.75

PnL

+$9.75

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

Both legs:

Taylor Fritz$155.2744.4¢+$10.75

Arthur Fils$10854¢-$1

VenusianCTR<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$97.05

Value

$95.53

PnL

-$1.52

Record

51%

1362-1323 (2685)

darkumbreon88<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$59.36

Value

$58.81

PnL

-$0.55

Record

64%

1955-1087 (3042)

0xheavy888<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$44.28

Value

$43.87

PnL

-$0.41

Record

56%

7879-6308 (14187)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$39

Value

$17.36

PnL

-$0.94

Record

49%

4465-4662 (9127)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$10.24

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

61%

14179-9156 (23335)

ameisgoat11<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

8742-7954 (16696)

Research grade

NeutralTaylor Fritz at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Taylor Fritz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Arthur Fils 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Taylor Fritz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Arthur Fils) and the top 1000 (11 on Taylor Fritz) disagree here.

whaleArthur Fils 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrArthur Fils 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Fils 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Taylor Fritz 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Taylor Fritz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.