Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-05?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$1.3K
$56.16
60¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 60¢ | $459.43 | $486.23 | +$26.8 | 49% 14327-15003 (29330) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 60¢ | $366.64 | $369.62 | +$2.98 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 60¢ | $118.46 | $125.37 | +$6.91 | 39% 1339-2113 (3452) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 60¢ | $118.44 | $125.35 | +$6.91 | 40% 1343-2037 (3380) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 60¢ | $111.64 | $118.15 | +$6.51 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $84.2 | $88.58 | +$4.38 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $23.8 | $25.4 | +$1.6 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $8.1 | $8.17 | +$0.07 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
Invested
$459.43
Value
$486.23
PnL
+$26.8
Record
49%
14327-15003 (29330)
Invested
$366.64
Value
$369.62
PnL
+$2.98
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$118.46
Value
$125.37
PnL
+$6.91
Record
39%
1339-2113 (3452)
Invested
$118.44
Value
$125.35
PnL
+$6.91
Record
40%
1343-2037 (3380)
Invested
$111.64
Value
$118.15
PnL
+$6.51
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
Invested
$84.2
Value
$88.58
PnL
+$4.38
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$23.8
Value
$25.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.