Cali: Julia Riera vs Renata Zarazua

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Riera (54%) · Julia Riera at 69¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 12

Julia Riera69¢Renata Zarazua31¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Julia Riera

Consensus Traders

Julia Riera 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 68.5¢

+48% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralJulia Riera at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Riera

13 of 24 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Julia Riera69%

Renata Zarazua32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Renata Zarazua11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares11,659

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Julia Riera13 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares10,319

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Renata Zarazua — 46%Julia Riera — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Renata Zarazuaavg 40.3¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$859.53	42% 7993-11187 (19180)
LI Limousin	Julia Rieraavg 29.7¢	$1.0K	$2.7K	+$1.6K	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 65.7¢	$4.2K	$2.4K	$-1.8K	51% 4763-4628 (9391)
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 65.7¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	$-1.8K
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 73.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$31.01
FL Flaznorp	Julia Rieraavg 42.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$295.87	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
WH whosay	Julia Rieraavg 64.2¢	$962.48	$937.5	-$24.98	56% 1146-889 (2035)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Julia Rieraavg 73¢	$888.54	$870.18	-$18.35	53% 6257-5538 (11795)
LI LightParadox	Julia Rieraavg 29.3¢	$327.15	$699.02	+$371.86	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
MA MadridTime	Julia Rieraavg 63.9¢	$512.52	$620.59	+$108.08	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 71.5¢	$753.42	$494.26	-$94.07	53% 782-707 (1489)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 52.4¢	$280.17	$376.95	+$98.31
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 71.5¢	$284.25	$117.31	-$192.37
RN1CTR	Renata Zarazuaavg 45.2¢	$706.13	$481.54	-$224.59	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Julia Rieraavg 51.2¢	$329.34	$334.36	+$5.02	46% 1536-1808 (3344)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 33.3¢	$237.75	$170.7	-$67.05	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 33.3¢	$221.22	$136.12	-$85.1
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 38¢	$16.53	$34.58	+$18.05
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 41.1¢	$139.8	$167.67	+$27.87	54% 6274-5339 (11613)
└ Renata Zarazua leg	Renata Zarazuaavg 41.1¢	$100.26	$93.88	-$6.38
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 33¢	$39.55	$73.79	+$34.25
GA GaditimaCTR	Renata Zarazuaavg 28¢	$140	$142.5	+$2.5	48% 7376-8077 (15453)
38 38791873984189CTR	Renata Zarazuaavg 38.2¢	$224.26	$120.77	-$64.49	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 48¢	$86.86	$75.69	+$10.03	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Julia Rieraavg 55.4¢	$82.65	$74.18	-$8.47	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 28¢	$70	$73.75	+$3.75	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 28¢	$56	$57	+$1	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Julia Rieraavg 35¢	$63.43	$52.17	+$59.3	60% 4436-2970 (7406)
0xheavy888<$100	Julia Rieraavg 50¢	$49.63	$49.63	+$0.99	56% 7911-6321 (14232)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 48.1¢	$39.96	$39.88	-$0.08	61% 14348-9281 (23629)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 66.3¢	$56.54	$32.19	-$24.35	66% 24256-12368 (36624)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Julia Rieraavg 39.6¢	$11.55	$15.3	+$8.75	65% 5272-2886 (8158)
TRCMCTR<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 49.2¢	$11.48	$9.54	-$1.94	55% 4057-3273 (7330)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$3,526.15

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$859.53

Record

42%

7993-11187 (19180)

Limousin

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,013.31

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$4,187.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

4763-4628 (9391)

Both legs:

Renata Zarazua$3,110.0465.7¢$-1.8K

Julia Riera$1,077.6273.6¢-$31.01

Flaznorp

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,149.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$295.87

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

whosay

Julia Riera

Invested

$962.48

Value

$937.5

PnL

-$24.98

Record

56%

1146-889 (2035)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Julia Riera

Invested

$888.54

Value

$870.18

PnL

-$18.35

Record

53%

6257-5538 (11795)

LightParadox

Julia Riera

Invested

$327.15

Value

$699.02

PnL

+$371.86

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

MadridTime

Julia Riera

Invested

$512.52

Value

$620.59

PnL

+$108.08

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$753.42

Value

$494.26

PnL

-$94.07

Record

53%

782-707 (1489)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$280.1752.4¢+$98.31

Renata Zarazua$284.2571.5¢-$192.37

RN1CTR

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$706.13

Value

$481.54

PnL

-$224.59

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Julia Riera

Invested

$329.34

Value

$334.36

PnL

+$5.02

Record

46%

1536-1808 (3344)

VenusianARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$237.75

Value

$170.7

PnL

-$67.05

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

Both legs:

Renata Zarazua$221.2233.3¢-$85.1

Julia Riera$16.5338¢+$18.05

EulhunterARB<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$139.8

Value

$167.67

PnL

+$27.87

Record

54%

6274-5339 (11613)

Both legs:

Renata Zarazua$100.2641.1¢-$6.38

Julia Riera$39.5533¢+$34.25

GaditimaCTR

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$140

Value

$142.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

7376-8077 (15453)

38791873984189CTR

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$224.26

Value

$120.77

PnL

-$64.49

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$86.86

Value

$75.69

PnL

+$10.03

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$82.65

Value

$74.18

PnL

-$8.47

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$70

Value

$73.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$56

Value

$57

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

thestingsnake<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$63.43

Value

$52.17

PnL

+$59.3

Record

60%

4436-2970 (7406)

0xheavy888<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$49.63

Value

$49.63

PnL

+$0.99

Record

56%

7911-6321 (14232)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.88

PnL

-$0.08

Record

61%

14348-9281 (23629)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$56.54

Value

$32.19

PnL

-$24.35

Record

66%

24256-12368 (36624)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$11.55

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$8.75

Record

65%

5272-2886 (8158)

TRCMCTR<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$11.48

Value

$9.54

PnL

-$1.94

Record

55%

4057-3273 (7330)

Research grade

NeutralJulia Riera at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Riera

13 of 24 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Julia Riera wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.