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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | mostlywrong | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (4827–4032, n=8859) | 41% (589–853, n=1442) | 59% (60–42, n=102) | 48% (17938–19366, n=37304) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.2M | $7.7M | $7.5K | $14.9M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #8 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #952 | PM monthly #31 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 65% (24 of 37 open) | 81% (29 of 36 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 62% (37 of 60 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NHL −1 pts, n=136 | — | College Football −15 pts, n=11 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 43% of 95 at avg 39¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 11% of 1182) | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 53% (won 12% of 50) | 10% (won 57% of 2594) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 46% of 1753) | 36% (won 98% of 212) | 11% (won 40% of 10) | 22% (won 94% of 5704) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 66% of 2092) | 35% (won 100% of 205) | 8% (won 63% of 8) | 35% (won 99% of 9204) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 91% of 2125) | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 28% (won 96% of 27) | 33% (won 100% of 8622) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
9 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | mostlywrong | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans vs. Clippers opposite sides · consensus Clippers | Pelicans $62K | — | — | Clippers $35K |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | Yes $22K | — | — |
| Spread: Heat (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Kings | Heat $8.9K | — | — | Kings $3.3K |
| Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $77 | — | — | Over $931 |
| UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors opposite sides · consensus Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors $58 | — | — | UT Arlington Mavericks $61 |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula same side · consensus Coco Gauff | Coco Gauff $44K | — | — | Coco Gauff $58K |
| Buccaneers vs. Bears same side · consensus Bears | Bears $80K | — | — | Bears $20K |
| Spread: Heat (-9.5) same side · consensus Heat | Heat $97K | — | — | Heat $1.7K |
| Spread: Bears (-6.5) same side · consensus Buccaneers | Bears $66K | Bears $12K | — | — |
| Knoxville: Patrick Zahraj vs Sebastian Dominko same side · consensus Patrick Zahraj | Patrick Zahraj $29K | — | — | Patrick Zahraj $5.8K |
| Matsuyama: Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda same side · consensus Keisuke Saitoh | Keisuke Saitoh $8.6K | — | — | Keisuke Saitoh $24K |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus Yes | No $18 | No $29K | — | — |
| Spread: Bears (-5.5) same side · consensus Buccaneers | — | Bears $96 | — | Bears $10K |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus No | No $4.5K | No $2.4K | — | — |