UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (70%) · Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9

UT Arlington Mavericks30¢Hawaii Rainbow Warriors70¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Consensus Traders

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 70%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$221.49

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 70.5¢

-20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UT Arlington Mavericks30%

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,979

Combined PnL-$224.09

UT Arlington Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$64.46

Total Shares227

Combined PnL+$2.6

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — 70%UT Arlington Mavericks — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
A4 0xa466...1c77	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 92.4¢	$955.74	$809.1	-$146.64	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 83.9¢	$405.11	$371.91	-$33.2	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
38 38791873984189	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 83.8¢	$198.26	$169.06	-$29.2	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 89.6¢	$76.73	$70.65	-$6.09	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
RN1CTR<$100	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 27.1¢	$59.92	$63.07	+$3.15	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 77¢	$61.56	$57.16	-$4.4	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 75.5¢	$57.36	$54.34	-$3.02	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 79.3¢	$15.85	$14.3	-$1.55	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 21.8¢	$1.1	$1.16	+$0.06	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
US User7429CTR<$100	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 10.4¢	$8.67	$0.23	-$0.61	56% 10315-8130 (18445)

0xa466...1c77

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$955.74

Value

$809.1

PnL

-$146.64

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$405.11

Value

$371.91

PnL

-$33.2

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

38791873984189

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$198.26

Value

$169.06

PnL

-$29.2

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$76.73

Value

$70.65

PnL

-$6.09

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

RN1CTR<$100

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$59.92

Value

$63.07

PnL

+$3.15

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$61.56

Value

$57.16

PnL

-$4.4

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

Pan9X<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$57.36

Value

$54.34

PnL

-$3.02

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

ameisgoat11<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$15.85

Value

$14.3

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

LimousinCTR<$100

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

User7429CTR<$100

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$8.67

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.61

Record

56%

10315-8130 (18445)

Research grade

AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawaii Rainbow Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.